Europe: Adverse weather forecast across parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Italy, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia through at least Jan. 20 /update 1

Event

A combination of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds is forecast across parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Italy, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia through at least Jan. 20. Snowfall is also likely to become an increasing factor, especially in elevated parts of the region, as temperatures are forecast to drop across the region over the coming days. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and strong winds may cause property damage and power outages. Thunderstorms may be accompanied by lightning and hail. Hazardous travel conditions are likely due to flooded roads and icy conditions.

As of Jan. 18, the respective meteorological agencies have issued the following weather warnings:

• Red heavy rainfall warnings (the highest level in a three-tier scale): Across Kosovo; inland areas of Montenegro, and southwestern Serbia.

• Red strong wind warnings: Southern coastal areas of Croatia.

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings: Trebinje Municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina; Basilicata, Calabria, and Campania regions in Italy, and coastal regions of Montenegro.

• Orange snow warnings: Emilia-Romagna Region in Italy.

• Orange strong wind warnings: Livno Municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina; central coastal areas of Croatia; Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Campania, Lazio, Molise, Puglia, and Sardinia regions in Italy, and across Montenegro.

• Yellow heavy rainfall warnings: Banja Luka, Foca, Livno, Mostar, Prijedor, and Sarajevo municipalities in Bosnia and Herzegovina; Dubrovnik and Knin regions in Croatia; Abruzzo, Lazio, Molise, Puglia, Sardinia, Sicily, and Umbria regions in Italy, and central, northwestern, southeastern, and western regions in Serbia.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Dubrovnik, Knin, Rijeka, and Split regions in Croatia; Basilicata, Calabria, and Campania regions in Italy, and across northern and southwestern regions in Serbia.

• Yellow snow warnings: Abruzzo, Lazio, Lombardy, Marche, Sardinia, Tuscany, and Umbria regions in Italy.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Banja Luka, Bihar, Foca, Mostar, Sarajevo, Trebinje, Tuzla, and Visegrad municipalities in Bosnia and Herzegovina; northern coastal areas of Croatia, and Sicily Region in Italy.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash, and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Meteo Alarm
Bosnia and Herzegovina Federal Hydrometeorological Institute
Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ)
Italy Servizio Meteorologico
Montenegro Institue for Hydrometeorology and Seismology (ZHMS)
Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia