Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Irene tracking eastward in the Coral Sea as of late Jan. 18 /update 1

Event

Tropical Cyclone Irene has strengthened into a Category 1 tropical cyclone and is tracking eastward in the Coral Sea late Jan. 18. As of 23:00 NCT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 324 km (201 miles) west-southwest of Port Vila.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly and reach Category 2 tropical cyclone intensity as it tracks southeastward between New Caledonia and Vanuatu early Jan. 19, making a close approach to Tanna and Anatom islands in Tafea Province, Vanuatu, late morning-early afternoon Jan. 19. The system is then likely to weaken into a tropical disturbance by late Jan. 21 as it tracks generally southeastward away from New Caledonia and Vanuatu. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Jan. 18, The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department have warned of strong winds, heavy rainfall, rough seas, and possible flooding as the storm system passes through the region. The department has issued red cyclone alerts for Malampa, Shefa, and Tafea provinces, as well as yellow cyclone alerts for Penama and Sanma provinces and blue cyclone alerts for Torba Province. Severe weather warnings for strong winds and possible flooding and landslides have been issued across Vanuatu Jan. 19, as well as strong wind and rough sea warnings for all coastal waters.

Meteo France New Caledonia has not issued any tropical cyclone alerts; however, severe weather warnings have been issued across northern and eastern parts of the territory. Yellow strong wind, rain, and large wave warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) have been issued for Belep Island, northern and eastern parts of Grand Terre Island, and the Loyalty Islands.

Authorities will likely issue warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department