Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle tracking southeastward off eastern Australia as of afternoon Feb. 10 /update 2

Event

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is tracking southeastward in the Coral Sea, off eastern Australia, the afternoon of Feb. 10. As of 13:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 765 km (475 miles) northeast of Brisbane, Australia.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken slightly into a Category 2 Tropical Cyclone while passing well south of New Caledonia through early Feb. 11. Gabrielle is likely to weaken further and make a close approach to Norfolk Island, Australia, late Feb. 11, passing north of the island before making a close approach to far northern New Zealand Feb. 12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Feb. 10, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has warned of gales with gusts up to 120 kph (75mph) over Norfolk Island from late Feb. 10. The wind strength is forecast increase to 140 kph (87 mph) by afternoon of Feb. 11. Abnormally high tides and very heavy surf are likely around Norfolk Island, which may lead to localized damage and coastal erosion. Heavy rain is forecast over the island Feb. 11 before easing Feb. 12.

Meteo France New Caledonia has issued orange (middle level on a three-tier scale) strong wind warnings and yellow heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings across the territory.

New Zealand National Meteorological Service (MetService) has warned that Gabrielle will impact the north Feb. 12 before spreading to other parts of northern and central New Zealand Feb. 13. Yellow (lowest level on a three-tier scale) heavy rain watches are in place over Auckland including Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, and Northland. Yellow strong wind watches are in effect for Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Northland, Waikato, Waitomo, Bay of Plenty, and Gisborne. Orange heavy swell warnings have been issued in Wairarapa, from Turakirae Head to Mataikona. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Meteo France New Caledonia
New Zealand National Meteorological Service