Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy tracking westward in Indian Ocean Feb. 18 /update 1

Event

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is tracking westward in the Indian Ocean Feb. 18. As of 16:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,067 km (663 miles) south-southwest of Diego Garcia.

Forecast models indicate that the system will maintain intense tropical cyclone strength as it tracks generally west-southwestward Feb. 19, passing well to the north of Rodrigues Island, Mauritius, late Feb. 19-early Feb. 20. Freddy is then likely to pass to the north of the main island of Mauritius and Reunion Feb. 20-early Feb. 21. After passing the islands, the storm is forecast to weaken slightly as it continues to track west-southwestward before making landfall over the central-eastern coast of Madagascar late Feb. 21. After making landfall, the storm system is forecast to weaken to a moderate tropical storm as it tracks southwestward across central Madagascar Feb. 22 before turning to track west-southwestward and strengthening into a severe tropical storm as it emerges into the Mozambique Channel late Feb. 22-Feb. 23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Feb. 18, the Mauritius Meteorological Services have issued a Class 2 cyclone warning (level 2 out of 4) for Rodrigues Island and a Class 1 cyclone warning for Mauritius Island due to Freddy. Windy conditions, showers, and rough seas are forecast to impact Rodrigues Island from Feb. 18 before weather conditions further deteriorate from the afternoon of Feb. 19. Weather conditions are forecast to deteriorate over Mauritius Island from the afternoon of Feb. 20.

Meteo France has issued a yellow cyclone pre-alert warning across Reunion. Airline operator Air Austral (UU) has notably rescheduled some flights to and from Roland Garros Airport (RUN) Feb. 20-21.

Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has issued green cyclone early warning alerts (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across Analanjirofo, Atsimo Atsinanana, Atsinanana, Fitovinany, and Vatovavy regions. Weather conditions are forecast to begin to deteriorate along Madagascar's eastern coast from late Feb. 20.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports, such as Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) and Sir Gaetan Duval Airport (RRG), and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Meteo France Reunion
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology