Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Kevin tracking east-southeastward toward Vanuatu as of March 3 /update 1

Event

Tropical Cyclone Kevin is tracking east-southeastward in the Coral Sea toward Vanuatu March 3. As of 14:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 202 km (125 miles) west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen further and make landfall over Erromango Island, Vanuatu, early March 4 before strengthening further into a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone. Kevin is forecast to weaken as it tracks southeastward away from New Caledonia and Vanuatu through early March 6. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of March 3, the Vanuatu Meteorological Services has issued a tropical cyclone warning; a red alert is in place for Malampa, Penama, Sanma, Shefa, and Tafea provinces. Heavy rainfall is forecast over the northern provinces of Vanuatu; flash flooding is likely in low-lying areas, areas close to the river banks, and along the coast. Destructive hurricane-force winds of 130 kph (81 mph) are likely across Malampa, Sanma, and Shefa provinces over the coming hours. Seas will be rough to very rough, with heavy swells likely over Vanuatu's northern and central waters.

Meteo France New Caledonia issued a cyclone pre-alert warning throughout the territory. Weather conditions over the Loyalty Islands are likely to degrade from March 3.

The Fiji Meteorological Service has issued a heavy rain warning for Ba, Kadavu, Lau, Lomaiviti, Nadroga-Navosa, and Ra provinces and a heavy rain alert for the rest of Fiji. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Vanuatu is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Cyclone Judy Feb. 28-early March 2. Officials declared a state of emergency for the country following impact assessments after the passage of Tropical Cyclone Judy. Authorities are maintaining emergency shelters in Port Vila and other at-risk areas for those who cannot shelter safely at home. Air Vanuatu (NF) has suspended all international and domestic flights through March 3 due to the forecast adverse weather associated with Kevin. Services are likely to remain affected March 4. Schools and businesses are closed in affected areas. Most of northern and central Vanuatu, including Port Vila, are without power. Reports indicate damaged buildings in several parts of Port Vila and many destroyed houses on Epi Island. Authorities have restored communications and power in most of Port Vila, but services remain disrupted in the southern islands of Erromango and Tanna. Damage assessments are ongoing, and it may take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is known, especially in remote islands where communications are limited.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Fiji Meteorological Service
Meteo France New Caledonia
Tonga Meteorological Service
Vanuatu Meteorological Services