Vanuatu: Tropical Cyclone Kevin tracking southeastward over south of country as of early March 4 /update 2

Event

Tropical Cyclone Kevin is tracking southeastward over southern Vanuatu early March 4. As of 23:00 VUT March 3, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 94 km (59 miles) south-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Forecast models indicate that the system will make landfall over Vanuatu's Erromango Island in the coming hours before passing between Tanna and Aniwa islands and then east of Anatom Island early March 4. Kevin is then forecast to strengthen further into a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone as it tracks southeastward away from southern Vanuatu late March 4. The system is subsequently forecast to weaken as it continues to move southeastward into the South Pacific Ocean through late March 6. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early March 4, the Vanuatu Meteorological Service has issued a tropical cyclone warning; a red alert is in place for Malampa, Penama, Sanma, Shefa, and Tafea provinces. Heavy rainfall is forecast throughout Vanuatu; flash flooding is likely in low-lying areas, areas close to river banks, and along the coast. Winds gusting up to 230 kph (143 mph) are forecast in Shefa and Tafea provinces over the coming hours, with strong winds also likely in other provinces under cyclone warnings. Storm surge is forecast to affect Sanma, the central islands, and all coastal areas of the Tafea islands. Seas will be very rough, with heavy swells likely over all of Vanuatu's waters.

Meteo France New Caledonia has issued a cyclone pre-alert warning throughout the territory. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely in the Loyalty Islands early March 4.

The Fiji Meteorological Service has issued a heavy rain warning for the Yasawa and Mamanuca groups, northern Ba and Ra, the Greater Nadi/Lautoka/Ba area, Sigatoka, interior Ba and Nadroga-Navosa, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands, and the Lau and Lomaiviti groups. A heavy rain alert is in effect for the rest of Fiji. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Vanuatu is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Cyclone Judy Feb. 28-early March 2. Officials declared a state of emergency for the country following impact assessments after the passage of the system. Authorities are maintaining emergency shelters in Port Vila and other at-risk areas for those who cannot shelter safely at home. Air Vanuatu (NF) had suspended all international and domestic flights through March 3 due to the forecast adverse weather associated with Kevin; services are likely to remain affected March 4. Schools and businesses are closed in affected areas. Much of northern and central Vanuatu is without power. Reports indicate that there are damaged buildings in several parts of Port Vila and many destroyed houses on Epi Island. Authorities have restored communications and power in most of Port Vila, but services remain disrupted in the southern islands of Erromango and Tanna. Damage assessments are ongoing, and it may take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is known, especially in remote islands where communications are limited.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Fiji Meteorological Service
Meteo France New Caledonia
Tonga Meteorological Services
Vanuatu Meteorological Service