Nigeria: Electoral commission postpones governorship elections to March 18; political tensions elevated. /update 8

Event

On March 8, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) postponed the Governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections scheduled for March 11 to March 18. INEC cited its inability to reconfigure the electronic voting materials on time and store the data collected during the Feb. 25 presidential election.

Political gatherings are likely nationwide through at least the end of the election cycle and the aftermath through late March. Likely gathering locations include main urban centers, notably near APC and other political party headquarters, INEC offices, and government budlings. Officials will likely maintain a substantial security presence nationwide, notably on polling day. Officials may impose restrictive measures such as temporary curfews to prevent or in the event of significant unrest. Clashes between supporters of rival political groups remain possible, particularly in urban areas. Other forms of election-related violence are possible, including targeted assassinations and abductions. Militant and criminal attacks targeting election-related sites and events are also possible during the election period.

Context

The INEC declared Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) party winner of the Feb. 25 presidential election. Tensions remain elevated after observers, including the EU mission, and the main opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), raised concerns over widespread irregularities. Reports of fraud or irregularities, legitimate or not, have the potential to fuel significant unrest, notably by supporters of losing candidates and parties.

The PDP and the LP have vowed to challenge the election results via legal means. Localized protests denouncing the results continue in parts of the country without major disruptions reported. Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar (PDP) led a peaceful demonstration towards the INEC headquarters in Abuja on March 7, while Peter Obi (LP) went to the Court of Appeal in Abuja on March 8 to attend a hearing related to the inspection of electoral materials used during the presidential election.

Advice

Avoid all public demonstrations and political gatherings. Avoid discussing politically sensitive topics in public. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Confirm all ground transport services before travel. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities.