Myanmar: Protests possible nationwide as of March 29 following the dissolution of political parties

Event

Protests are possible across Myanmar as of March 29 following the military's (Tatmadaw) dissolution of over 40 political parties, including the National League for Democracy (NLD) - the former ruling party led by former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. The military dissolved the parties for allegedly violating a new law requiring political parties to reregister within 60 days or risk dissolution.

Although no group immediately announced plans for specific demonstrations, protests could occur particularly in urban centers, such as Yangon, near government buildings and other popular protest sites, such as public squares and roadways. Dozens to hundreds of people may participate in demonstrations that materialize.

The dissolution could also lead to increased explosions targeting security personnel in rural areas and urban centers, including Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw, by militant groups such as the People’s Defense Force (PDF) opposing the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military). Armed clashes between the Tatmadaw and PDF, as well as armed ethnic insurgent groups, could also intensify over the coming days and weeks.

Authorities will likely increase security at protest locations. Tight security will probably be in place at government buildings and near critical infrastructure nationwide. Localized transport and business disruptions are probable during any demonstration. Clashes between pro-democracy activists and security forces are likely if protests occur. Officials may disrupt telecommunication networks in anticipation of or in response to any large or disruptive protests, as well as in areas where clashes occur.

Context

The first general election since the military ousted the democratically elected NLD government in February 2021 is scheduled for August, but the nationwide state of emergency, which has been extended for another six months, is likely to delay the polls. Critics argue that the new registration law is designed to favor the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) by making it difficult for other political entities to comply with the new registration requirements. The new legislation calls for political entities to, inter alia, recruit a minimum of 100,000 members within 90 days of their approved registration and open offices in over 150 townships within six months.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations due to possible violence. Monitor local developments, especially protest plans, closely, as organizers may not announce details in advance. Do not record any military-related movements or demonstrations due to the risk of arbitrary detention. If clashes break out, depart the area immediately. Allow additional travel time near protests. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security personnel. Heed all official security instructions. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.