Nigeria: Political gatherings possible nationwide through at least end of April following general election /update 12

Event

Political gatherings are possible nationwide through at least the end of April following the general election. Localized protests denouncing the results continue throughout the country without significant disruptions reported. In Abuja, demonstrations are held almost daily near the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) headquarters; a group of protesters gathered in front of the US Embassy on March 28. While most of the demonstrations called by opposition parties have remained peaceful since Feb. 25, they have the potential to disrupt daily activities in urban centers notably. Localized episodes of violence, sometimes lethal, between rival supporters are possible; up to 28 and 27 related fatalities have been recorded nationwide on Feb. 25 and March 18 polling days, respectively. Abuja, Lagos, and Port Harcourt are prone to clashes between supporters of rival political groups. Other forms of election-related violence are possible, including targeted assassinations and abductions.

Likely gathering locations include main urban centers near All Progressive Congress (APC) and other political party headquarters, INEC offices, and government buildings. Security forces will likely deploy to any protest that materializes. Ensuing transport or commercial disruptions are probable near protest areas. Officials may impose additional restrictive measures, such as temporary curfews, to prevent violence or in the event of significant unrest.

Context

The INEC declared Bola Tinubu from the ruling APC party winner of the Feb. 25 presidential election. Tensions remain elevated after observers, including the EU mission, and the main opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), raised concerns over widespread irregularities, particularly during the presidential election. Reports of fraud, including vote buying and rigging, as well as acts of political violence and intimidation, were reported during the Feb. 25 and March 18 polling days.

The PDP and the LP have vowed to challenge the presidential election results via legal means. State elections will also likely be challenged. However, a court ruling may take months, and frequent political gatherings held by the LP and the PDP, but also APC supporters, are likely until at least a decision on the election outcome is announced by the court.

Advice

Remain apprised of the political situation. Avoid discussing political topics in public. Avoid all public demonstrations and political gatherings. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities.