Ethiopia: Increased tension likely in Amhara Region through at least mid-April amid officials' call to dismantle regional special forces units

Event

Increased tension between the federal government and Amhara Special Forces (ASF) will likely persist in the Amhara Region through at least mid-April after Ethiopian officials announced they would begin dissolving regional special forces units to integrate into several security structures, including the federal or regional police and the national army. Amhara activists opposed the decision and viewed the move as a way to reduce autonomy and leave the region vulnerable to attacks. However, officials assert that the action is to form a centralized national security force. Moreover, related protests and disruptions were reported in areas in Amhara Region as of April 7.

Fighting between the federal government forces and ASF may occur if the latter refuses to hand its weapons to authorities. The federal government will likely maintain a heavy army presence, including deploying armored vehicles across the Amhara region, particularly in major cities such as Bahir Dar, Gondar, Dessie, Mota, and Kombolcha, over the coming days. The army may further implement a security lockdown of the affected urban centers through curfew, patrols, and checkpoints. Ongoing security operations may result in travel restrictions and short-term ground transport disruptions. Intermittent internet disruptions are also likely in the coming few days.

Context

The federal government's announcement came despite strong criticism, especially from ethnic-Amhara activists and members of the National Movement of the Amhara (NaMA) party, who see the move as a way for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to disarm ASF so that the neighboring Tigray Region would regain control of occupied disputed territories, (Wolkait) Western Tigray and Raya zone (Southern Tigray). Amhara forces controlled Wolkait and Raya zones in November 2020 following the military confrontation between the federal troops and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels. The ASF fought alongside the national forces against TPLF rebels between 2020-2022.

The federal government and TPLF rebels ended fighting on Nov. 2 after signing a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa. Several steps have been taken to implement the peace deal, including forming an Interim Regional Administration (IRA) and removing the TPLF from the designated terrorist list. Despite positive trends, key issues remain, including the complete disarmament of the TPLF's forces and the withdrawal of non-government forces (Eritrean troops and Amhara militias) from Tigray territory.

Advice

Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Heed the instructions of the security forces. Travel with personal identification documents to facilitate transit through checkpoints. Liaise with trusted local contacts before traveling to or within Amhara region. Reconfirm all transport services before departure. Avoid concentrations of security personnel and travel at night. Plan for possible short-term telecommunication disruptions.