Rebel coalition encircles Bangui following breakdown in relations over election dispute.
The security threat environment in the Central African Republic (CAR) will remain severe in the coming months, following bouts of increased violence between December 2020 and January 2021. Although the country has struggled with stability and security issues since 2013, recent violence and heightened political tensions have emerged as a result of the breakdown in relations between the government, opposition parties, and the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebel group. Fighting continues to be reported nationwide, with hundreds of thousands of civilians affected. The capital, Bangui, remains under a state of siege since being encircled by the rebel coalition, and a nationwide state of emergency is in place.
The relationship between the country’s political opposition and the CPC remains vague; however, authorities have accused former president François Bozizé of allying himself to the armed group as part of a plan to return to the country’s top office. Bozizé, a former coup leader himself, was overthrown by a Seleka rebel group in 2013, triggering years of insecurity. However, the current rebel coalition that Bozizé backs comprises former Seleka and anti-balaka fighters, groups which had fought on opposing sides during the initial conflict. Given the fractious history between these groups, it is unclear what the CPC’s victory conditions would entail. As the conflict settles into an impasse around Bangui, the actions of the armed group will elucidate its intentions, with further attempts at attacking the city indicative of a resolve to depose recently re-elected President Faustin-Archange Touadéra. Conversely, calls for dialogue, foreign intervention, or the easing of the blockade would point to an attempt to elicit concessions from the central government via negotiations.
Domestic security forces are currently incapable of countering the rebel threat or breaking the blockade without foreign support; however, further foreign assistance may be contingent on whether the CPC conducts further attacks on the capital. As one of the last areas under government control, the city is currently being defended by a patchwork of security forces including CAR, UN, and Russian and Rwandan contingents. French military aircraft have also been reported in areas under rebel control. These groups are currently driven by varied, if sometimes unclear, interests, and there appears to be no clear appetite for drawn-out campaigns against rebels in the interior of the country. The primary objective will remain to secure the capital and break the siege to allow for the inflow of much-needed aid and resources.
Given his weakened security position, Touadéra will likely continue to push for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing crisis. The President may attempt to bring the political opposition into the fold as a way of dispersing questions about his legitimacy. Such a move would require the President to offer top positions to current detractors, as well as a guarantee of a more secure future with him than under a rebel-led government. This position, however, is unlikely to bring an end to the conflict in the short term.
