Escalating Violence in Afghanistan as Taliban Seize Urban Areas

The Taliban is highly likely to continue gaining further ground in Afghanistan before winter weather disrupts transport routes and brings an end to the traditional fighting season. On August 6, Taliban fighters took control of a provincial capital – Zaranj, in southwest Afghanistan – for the first time since the group was driven out of power in 2001.

Over the following days, Taliban forces seized control of at least five additional provincial capitals. As of August 10, fighting between government forces and insurgents is ongoing in other district capitals, including Mazar-e-Sharif, the largest city in northern Afghanistan, Herat, western Afghanistan’s main urban center, and Kandahar, the main city in the south of the country.

Taliban Takes Control of Afghan Districts

Taliban militants control at least 229 of Afghanistan’s 421 districts; in April 2021, the movement outright controlled only 73 districts. The Taliban either administers or contests government control in nearly all regions of the country, while effective central government administration is limited primarily to some major urban areas, districts in and around Kabul Province, and parts of central Afghanistan populated by ethnic Hazaras.

The Taliban even controls areas of northeast Afghanistan which were held by the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance prior to US military intervention in late 2001. The Taliban occupies multiple international border crossings between Afghanistan and its neighbors, and the group can control or disrupt key ground transportation routes between most urban centers at will. As overall security conditions have rapidly deteriorated, multiple national governments, including those of China, India, the US, UK, and Australia, have advised their citizens to immediately leave the country.

US Airstrikes Increase Despite Planned Withdrawal

Although US officials still plan a formal military withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of August, in recent weeks, the US military has responded to rapid Taliban territorial gains by increasingly targeting the group’s fighters with airstrikes. These actions may have a degree of tactical success, helping to hinder the Taliban advance in some areas.

However, strategically, air power alone has evidently been unable to reverse or even meaningfully slow the overall Taliban offensive. US airstrikes have also apparently provided motivation for the Taliban to escalate their efforts to seize control of urban areas. Taliban leaders have condemned recent US airstrikes as violations of their 2020 bilateral agreement with Washington, and they say their efforts to seize provincial capitals are, at least partially, a form of retaliation against perceived US backtracking on its deal with the group.

Momentum Remains with the Taliban

There are currently no significant indicators of the war’s momentum shifting against the Taliban. Government forces backed by US air power may launch counterattacks and have some degree of temporary success. However, Afghan army units were generally unable to sustainably roll back Taliban gains even when US and allied ground forces were directly intervening in the war.

The fact that the Taliban has apparently been able to seize and maintain control of multiple provincial capitals in a matter of days is a dire indicator of the Afghan government’s viability outside of Kabul. Furthermore, after securing control of other areas, Taliban operatives are likely to escalate attacks on the capital.

Threat of Violence Intensifying

The Taliban is likely to continue gaining territorial control, and Taliban fighters will target individuals who have supported anti-Taliban political or military efforts in the country. While such actions were previously confined primarily to rural areas, they will likely increasingly threaten major urban centers, including Kabul.

Shooting, bombing, and rocket attacks against security forces, government, and foreign targets may occur at any time in any part of the country. Threats are especially severe for Afghan and foreign nationals who have directly supported, or who are believed to have supported, the Afghan government or military, and its foreign allies.