A major increase in violence in Haiti, with criminal groups firing rifles at aircrafts at the capital’s airport and freeing thousands of prisoners after seizing control of two prisons, is threatening the future of de facto Prime Minister Ariel Henry. The situation prompted the government to declare a state of emergency and impose a nightly curfew; however, these measures proved ineffective in reducing violence as gangs continue to demand Henry’s resignation while overwhelming the outnumbered and underfunded Haitian National Police (Police Nationale d’Haiti, PNH). The current spate of gang violence came as Henry visited Kenya to participate in negotiations pertaining to the planned UN-backed Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission in Haiti, which aims restore order and assist the PNH. The UN resolution, approved in October 2023, stipulates that Kenyan forces will lead the mission. However, delays in negotiating the terms of the MSS deployment and Henry’s absence from the country, provided an opening for gangs to challenge Henry’s rule. The prime minister has been unable to return to the country as of March 7, arriving in Puerto Rico on March 5 amid reports of international pressure for a transfer of power.
Escalation of Gang Violence Prompts State of Emergency, Flight Disruptions
Officials in Haiti declared a state of emergency and a 18:00-05:00 curfew March 3-6; the measure is renewable for periods of 72 hours but has not been extended as of early March 7. The state of emergency came amid a recent surge of severe gang violence since Feb. 29 that intensified after Henry signed an agreement with authorities in Nairobi on March 1 to deploy 1,000 Kenyan police officers and lead the MSS mission. On March 2, around 4,000 inmates escaped and at least a dozen people were killed as armed gang members stormed the country’s two largest prisons in Port-au-Prince and Croix-des-Bouquets. Most escaped inmates had not been recaptured as of March 7.
Jimmy Chérizier, a former police officer and one of Haiti’s main gang leaders, is encouraging attacks on key infrastructure, including the Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP), to prevent Henry’s return to the country. Gangs have also reportedly surrounded Haiti’s main port. In addition to Chérizier’s G9 federation of gangs, other influential criminal groups that typically rival the G9 seem to have joined efforts to oust Henry, such as the 400 Mawozo. The ability of gangs to plan and execute increasingly elaborate operations has also been observed in a series of attacks targeting police facilities to weaken security forces.
As gangs step up attacks on government sites, nearly all commercial flights have been canceled at PAP. Air Caraibes (TX), Air Century (Y2), American Airlines (AA), InterCaribbean Airways (JY), JetBlue Airways (B6), Spirit Airlines (NK), and Sunrise Airways (S6), as well as cargo airline Amerijet International (M6), have all suspended flights following the surge in gang violence, which has included gunfire striking aircraft on the tarmac at PAP. As a result of recent violence, Canada and the US advised their citizens in Haiti to depart as soon as possible, but options to do so are extremely limited. The Dominican Republic also closed its airspace for all passenger and cargo flights to and from Haiti as of early March 6. While some services could be intermittently restored in the coming days, airlines will likely delay, cancel, or otherwise modify scheduled flights on short notice in response to the situation in Port-au-Prince.
Amid Delays for International Deployments, Gangs Become Increasingly Powerful
Without a confirmed date for international deployments to support Haiti’s overwhelmed police, gangs will almost certainly continue evolving their tactics and expanding territorial control. Kenya’s government has faced legal challenges over the constitutionality of deploying its troops to Haiti. After reviewing plans amid pressure from the courts, a formal agreement for the deployment was only signed in early March. Additionally, despite the US pledging USD 200 million to the MSS, some lawmakers seem reluctant to approve the disbursements. Amid these delays, gangs continue to control over 80 percent of Port-au-Prince, and some groups, such as Gran Grif, have been rapidly expanding into rural areas, especially in Artibonite Department. Greater control of rural areas would give gangs better access to clandestine airstrips and further control over important highways, such as National Route 1, likely boosting their military capacity and profits.
As gangs continue to engage in territorial disputes, there have been dramatic increases in the levels of violence nationwide. In 2023, homicides increased by 119 percent and kidnappings by 83 percent by comparison with 2022, with businesspeople and volunteers, including foreigners, being targeted in abductions for ransom. This trend will probably persist through early-to-mid 2024, given that January was the most violent month in two years, with over 1100 people either killed, injured, or kidnapped.
Gangs Pose Serious Threat to Prime Minister, Political Stability
The whereabouts of the prime minister remained unknown for several days after he signed the MSS deal in Nairobi until it was confirmed he landed in Puerto Rico on March 5 following an apparent failed attempt to return to Haiti. Reports suggest that some Caribbean Community (CARICOM) officials pressured Henry to resign, and the US is urging him to agree on a transition government as soon as possible. If Henry resigns or gangs oust his government, the apparent lack of a political successor who could gain consensus among Haiti’s various factions means that the country’s security environment is not likely to stabilize over the short term. Complicating the situation is that Haiti has failed to hold democratic elections since 2016 and the terms of all democratically elected officials have expired, leaving the entire legislature vacant. Any transition government would likely face serious questions regarding its legitimacy and risk having former politicians with ties to opposing gangs vie for the position, inciting further violence. If Henry remains part of a transition government, gangs will likely also continue to push for his removal.
A successful takeover of the airport by gangs could hinder access to the capital, not only for Henry but also for international troops. The only other international airport in the country serves Cap-Haïtien, located around 200 km (124 miles) from Port-au-Prince. If gangs take control of PAP, the MSS would likely be forced to reevaluate the number of troops it needs and make complex plans for the arrival of troops, which could include a forced entry operation at PAP or travel into the capital by land from Cap-Haïtien. With difficulties in negotiating even the current plans for limited troops and funding, the need for additional resources would likely further complicate and delay the deployment of the MSS, casting doubts over the entire mission. Even if gangs fail to take over the airport in Port-au-Prince, there are growing doubts about whether the estimated deployment of a total of 2,500 MSS troops from participating Caribbean and African countries would be enough to stabilize Haiti.
As gangs force operations at the main port and airport to be fully suspended, the country is likely to face shortages of basic goods in the coming days. With fewer than 9,000 police officers for an estimated population of around 11.5 million and underpaid officers increasingly abandoning posts upon realizing their helplessness against criminal groups, individuals and organizations in Haiti will remain vulnerable to widespread violence. In this context, the prospects of insecurity and political uncertainty also make a return to democratic rule in 2024 seem unlikely.
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