The demonstrations over the death of Mahsa Amini have become a rallying cry for millions of Iranians, especially women, who are demanding gender equality, as well as political reforms.
The Current Situation in Iran
Women continue to organize, mobilize, and lead protests in opposition to the Islamic Republic of Iran government and its policies. Since mid-September, when nationwide demonstrations began over the death of Mahsa Amini - a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman - at least 150 demonstrators have been killed and hundreds of others injured. According to human rights organizations, authorities have detained hundreds of protesters as they attempt to crack down on the demonstrations and discourage women from continuing to mobilize against the government.
The current demonstrations have practically evolved into a national revolt. However, it is misleading to compare the current protests led by women to Iran’s previous violent demonstrations such as the 2009 Green Movement or the 2019 nationwide acts of civil disobedience that erupted over the increase in the price of fuel. Protests in Iran have increased in frequency over the last few years. There were reportedly 4,000 demonstrations in 2021, though more than 2,220 protests were recorded in the first two quarters of 2022 alone. These demonstrations are motivated by a wide range of grievances, from declining socioeconomic conditions to women and ethno-religious minority groups demanding equal rights and an end to the government’s discriminatory policies.
The latest demonstrations have prompted long-term observers of the country to wonder whether some sort of a revolution is underway. While the current Iranian government has rarely encountered demonstrations of this scale and magnitude, it is premature to assume that the protest movement could severely undermine the government’s grip on power. All levers of the state apparatus have been set up so that they can ensure the continuity of the ruling establishment. However, while it was previously impossible to think of a serious internal challenge to the government, it is now possible to imagine that a persistent, determined group of Iranians could present a formidable threat to political stability in Iran.
Trigger for the Ongoing Protests
The protests initially broke out in direct response to the death of Amini while she was in the custody of Iran's Gasht-e-Ershad or morality police; Amini was charged with violating the nation's laws requiring women to wear hijabs and head scarfs. Amini's death became a rallying cry for millions of Iranians who are demanding that authorities abolish the Gasht-e-Ershad, among other reforms. Since the start of the protest campaign, the white-and-green vehicles used by the morality police have reportedly stopped patrolling the streets of Tehran. Still, it remains to be seen whether authorities will make further concessions in order to quell the unrest.
Analysis and Upcoming Developments
The Iranian leadership has yet to take responsibility for Amini’s death. Authorities have claimed that she suffered from pre-existing health conditions and died as a result. Her father, however, has disputed the official account and has asserted that his daughter was beaten to death. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has blamed the US and Israel for fomenting the social unrest in the country. This has directed the protesters’ anger at Khamenei and his second son, Mojataba, who is considered a serious candidate to ascend to the supreme leader position. Protesters have been fearlessly chanting “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to the Dictator.” While these chants have been expressed by demonstrators before, what is different is that they reverberate across Iranian society. It is not just women and their male allies that are protesting: Iran’s oil workers held solidarity demonstrations on Oct. 10 in Abadan and Asaluyeh; this was significant because any disruptions to the country’s oil industry will have serious financial implications for the government.
The 2009 demonstrations following the rigged presidential election were led by Iran’s moderates and middle class. In 2019, deadly protests were led by the poorer strata of society. The current women-led protests encompass Iranians from all walks of life. The protesters have been using the slogan of “Zan, Zendagi, Azadi,” meaning “women, life, and freedom.” They are serious demands from young Iranians, mostly born since 2000, who are disinclined to tolerate the government’s policies, particularly when it comes to individual rights and freedoms, at the same rate that their parents and grandparents did.
However, it is unlikely that authorities will introduce serious social and political reforms. This is mainly because the hijab or the headscarf is a key underpinning of the government’s ideological foundation. Once the hijab is removed, it is hard to imagine how the Iranian government could justify its continued rule. Additionally, while the demonstrations have shown no sign of abating, particularly now that school and university students are involved, the government’s coercive power and capacity remain immense. Authorities can deploy the Iranian Artesh or regular army; and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which was founded in May 1979 specifically to protect the revolution and its values. Then there is the Basij or Iran’s Organization for the Mobilization of the Oppressed (Sazeman-e Basij-e Mostazafen). The Basij was established in April 1980 to suppress dissidents and put down domestic social unrest.
While it is hard to know the exact number of the Basijis, the government claims that the organization has over 15 million members. The actual number may be closer to 4 million, which is still quite significant in a country of 83 million people. While members of the police and Artesh may be hesitant to employ force against the protesters, the Basijs will have no such qualms. Additionally, one of the key ingredients for a successful revolution is the existence of an alternative to the current governance architecture. The current women’s movement in Iran is leaderless and has yet to provide a plan of action or an alternative political vision going forward.
In the meantime, the Iranian government will continue to crack down on the demonstrators and impose severe restrictions on the internet in an effort to hamper activists' ability to mobilize support. The government will also increase its surveillance and harassment of foreign visitors to the country. France's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a travel advisory urging French citizens and residents to leave Iran as soon as possible. The advisory has been given due to the French government's concerns over the risk of arbitrary detention. Additional European countries will likely issue similar advisories over the coming days and weeks. On Oct. 6, the Iranian state media broadcast alleged confessions from two French teachers who were detained in the Islamic Republic on charges of inciting civil unrest during teachers' strikes in May.
The threat of arbitrary detention and imprisonment of foreign nationals, especially Western visitors, will likely persist in Iran for the foreseeable future. Security forces regularly detain and arrest foreigners of Iranian origin on security and espionage grounds. Foreign travelers to Iran, particularly Western visitors, continue to face questioning, detention, and imprisonment, particularly if they have any ties to military or government agencies. Iranian security officials have always been suspicious of Western travelers and Iranians who travel between their adopted countries and Iran. In light of continued tensions with the US and its allies, as well as ongoing anti-government demonstrations, Iran is likely to intensify scrutiny of foreigners and dual citizens visiting the country.
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