Tensions between Israel and Iran will likely persist and heighten in the coming weeks. These tensions primarily stem from the resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran, aiming to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, which former President Donald J. Trump abandoned in May 2018. Israel and its Gulf allies – mainly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – are vigorously against the lifting of economic sanctions and any rapprochement between Washington and Tehran. The Israelis, along with the Saudis and Emiratis, insist any new agreement that could materialize must comprehensively address Iran's assertive regional policies and missile program.
It remains to be seen whether the nuclear agreement with Iran can be revived. Talks aimed at restoring the 2015 deal among major powers, including China, Russia, Germany, and the UK, are ongoing in Vienna. In the meantime, the Israelis and Iranians have intensified their tit-for-tat attacks. In recent years, Israel not only has assassinated several Iranian scientists and key individuals working on Iran's nuclear program, but it has also launched serious cyberattacks to set back its progress. For example, the Iranian leadership attributed the April 11 cyberattack against Iran's most serious nuclear facility, Natanz, to Israel.
Escalatory Incidents in Recent Weeks
The Natanz nuclear enrichment plant suffered serious damages following the April 11 explosion. While Natanz was the latest nuclear plant to undergo a sabotage attack, other key infrastructure sites and nuclear facilities that have come under cyberattacks include the May 2020 Shahid Rajaee Port, a series of mysterious fires and explosions that focused on power, industrial, nuclear, and medical facilities between June and July 2020, and the November 2020 targeted killing of renowned Iranian nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in Tehran.
Fakhrizadeh, who served as head of the Research and Innovation Organization within the Ministry of Defense, spearheaded the AMAD Project from 1987 to 2003. A covert military operation, the project's sole purpose was to develop advanced defense technologies, including nuclear weapons. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), AMAD ended in 2003. Nevertheless, Fakhrizadeh continued serving at Iran's Ministry of Defense.
Fakhrizadeh was killed largely due to his critical role in Iran's nuclear program, which Tehran asserts is for peaceful purposes only. While there has as yet been no claim of responsibility for his assassination, those behind it likely seek to paralyze Iran's nuclear program and deter its ambitions of pursuing a nuclear weapon. Fakhrizadeh's killing may also be intended to discourage other prominent scientists in Iran from working for the government. The Israeli government is suspected of having killed at least four leading Iranian scientists between 2010 and 2012 to slow down the country's nuclear project.
Rivalry Between Israel and Iran
The competition between Israel and Iran has evolved into the most serious geopolitical rivalry in the Middle East. While Israel and its Sunni Arab allies in the region have always opposed Iran and its regional policies, the animosity between Tehran and Tel Aviv has intensified. Israel is no longer targeting the Iranian military advisers and Iranian-backed fighters in Syria; it has also been launching airstrikes against Iranian allies in Iraq. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently stated that Iran is his country's biggest enemy, and that Israel was striking at it all over the region. The Israeli airstrikes have seriously degraded Iranian force projection capabilities in Syria and has raised the stakes for the Syrian government to the extent it will not likely accommodate Iranian military bases within that country.
The two countries have upped the ante and have now taken their rivalry to open waters by targeting each other's commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Gulf of Oman. An explosion struck the Israeli vehicle carrier, MV Helios Ray, in the Gulf of Oman on February 26; Israel blamed Iran for the incident. The Israelis retaliated on March 10, and an explosion struck Iranian cargo ship Shahr-e-Kord in the Mediterranean Sea. A missile reportedly struck the Israeli cargo vessel Lori in the Arabian Sea, March 25. Iranian cargo ship Saviz incurred damage as a result of an explosion in the Red Sea, April 6. These attacks will likely continue, bringing about disruptions to maritime operations and supply chains, contributing to heightened security measures.
Neither Israel nor Iran wants to escalate tensions to the point of direct war. Israel will continue to target Iran's commercial and military interests throughout the Middle East, while Iran will engage with similar retaliatory actions. Israel will also launch serious cyberattacks – as it has done in the past – to degrade Iranian nuclear facilities and capabilities. Moreover, Israel will almost certainly intensify its attacks as Iran continues to enrich uranium. Following the cyberattack against Natanz, Iranian officials stated that they would begin enriching uranium to 60 percent purity; 90 percent uranium enrichment is needed to build bomb-grade material.
Short-Term Implications
Further escalation will almost certainly result in heightened security measures and possible business disruptions across the region. The tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel will persist. Attacks against commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman and other key waterways remain likely. In addition, Israel will almost certainly continue to attack Iranian military targets in Syria and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. Despite increased tensions, the possibility of a direct war between Israel and Iran remains slim in the near future.
