French authorities have declared a state of emergency across New Caledonia through at least May 27 due to violent unrest over the proposed expansion of the voters' list to include long-term residents. Pro-independence groups have strongly opposed the move, alleging it encroaches on indigenous rights. Fatal clashes and widespread rioting started May 13 following the National Assembly's approval of the legislation. The violence has prompted business closures, suspension of air, maritime, and ground transport, and damage to life and property. Additional rallies demanding the withdrawal of the legislation are almost certain in the coming weeks, with a heightened risk of armed altercations and opportunistic crime. Expansion of security curbs, such as ongoing overnight curfews in Greater Noumea, may also cause shortages of essential items and exacerbate business disruptions.
Background
Indigenous Kanaks make up over 40 percent of the population of New Caledonia, which is a semi-autonomous French territory. The region has seen multiple periods of violent unrest opposing French rule throughout its history, with the most significant clashes in the 1980s. Relative calm has persisted since the signing of the 1998 Noumea Accord, which assured higher political autonomy to the territory and limited the electoral roll to the indigenous Kanak and migrants living there before 1998. The rules also allowed for independence referendums that occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2021. Although voters rejected secession in all three polls, groups like the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) alliance continue to hold occasional pro-independence rallies.
French lawmakers' decision to approve expanding the electorate to include long-term residents of New Caledonia has served as the latest flashpoint in reigniting violent pro-independence protests. Fresh waves of unrest are also likely from late June, as French President Emmanuel Macron has insisted to pass the controversial law by June regardless of the outcome of planned negotiations with Kanak leaders. Furthermore, such formal changes to voting laws will almost certainly instigate large protests by pro-sovereignty outfits ahead of postponed provincial elections that must occur by Dec. 15.
Current Situation
Violence is likely to persist despite the increased security deployment in New Caledonia. Authorities have deployed at least 2,700 security personnel, including French military personnel, territorywide to guard the sea and airports. Nevertheless, the local police force's effectiveness will likely be hindered by a lack of resources, especially given that violence is exacerbated by large numbers of legal firearms available to the public.
High-risk areas for violence include Noumea, Dumbea, and Mont-Dore. Prolonged movement restrictions, renewed violence posing a safety risk for residents, and any counterprotests could further worsen business disruptions. Looting and rioting are likely to continue during demonstrations. Enhanced security measures to prevent security incidents may affect significant dates, such as during scheduled talks between French officials and Kanak groups and Macron’s visit to the territory on May 23 to assess the situation. Escalated clashes in the aftermath of any protester death in police action and targeted violence affecting politicians and symbols of French administration, such as French security personnel and the High Commissioner of the Republic office, are possible in the coming weeks.
Theft and arson attacks during recent riots have affected over 30 retail and manufacturing premises. The ongoing violence has also caused indefinite flight suspensions, while also causing extended gas station queues, disruptive blockades on arterial routes, and business closures. Energy-intensive sectors such as mining and industries heavily reliant on transportation may encounter higher operational costs and disruptions due to fuel scarcity.
Outlook
The overall security situation is unlikely to improve quickly due to the lack of resources and adequate training of local security personnel, long-standing interethnic frictions, and generally poor law enforcement. Travelers must closely watch for revisions in travel advisories at short notice and follow official instructions, including departure recommendations.
Comprehensive contingency planning is necessary to mitigate the potential expansion of security curbs, such as curfews and domestic travel restrictions, and downstream effects, such as actual or artificial shortages of essential items like food, fuel, and medicine. Such shortages, coupled with potential operational interruptions due to blockades and/or labor strikes, could increase overhead costs and delay projects – affecting productivity and profitability. Additionally, recurrent widespread violence due to failed negotiations poses concerns about long-term tourist and investor confidence in the territory.
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