The management and outcome of Kyiv’s ongoing counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine will likely have a significant impact on political developments over the medium term. Although Ukraine has not yet committed the bulk of its forces, Western expectations, domestic and international political pressure, and increasing war fatigue among the Ukrainian and European public could lead to an overall decrease in support for Kyiv’s war effort. The perceived success or failure of the operation will have an impact beyond the battlefield.
Implications of Ukraine’s Partial Advances
Ukraine began counteroffensive operations in the early summer with a series of small engagements against Russian defensive lines in Zaporizhzhia Region. The early assaults were likely designed to test the capabilities and readiness of Russia’s forces along the “Surovikin line,” a series of layered defensive positions in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions composed of trenches, minefields, and anti-tank obstacles. The scope and tempo of operations subsequently increased through July and August, with Kyiv increasingly committing its forces at multiple points along the southern and eastern fronts. Ukrainian forces are likely capable of maintaining the current tempo of operations; the military has not yet committed its strategic reserves, implying that the country is yet to launch its full-scale offensive. The bulk of Western-trained troops, as well as Western-supplied tanks, armored vehicles, long-range missiles, and air-defense systems are rarely spotted on the battlefield, suggesting they have only been partially committed thus far.
Still, Ukraine’s slow advance has raised concerns among some of its foreign supporters. A number of Western officials fear that military and humanitarian aid is being misused and mismanaged by corrupt officials, rather than being sent to support frontline personnel. Media reports covering the conflict could have played a role in the public’s high expectations for the counteroffensive. On numerous occasions, Kyiv addressed the need to manage expectations and urged the media and foreign officials to adopt a more reserved approach when forecasting possible Ukrainian offensive moves.
Fight Against Corruption
Managing Western expectations will remain one of Kyiv’s main challenges over the coming months; President Zelenskyy has recently sought to address some of the West’s concerns, particularly by showcasing measures to fight corruption. Ukraine has suffered from severe corruption for many years. Allowing misappropriation of funds, nepotism, and bribery to continue could undermine that the trust of important allies an a time when steady Western military and humanitarian support are flowing toward Ukraine. Multiple corruption investigations are underway, and several arrests have been made, including within the Ministry of Defense.
The most high-profile figure to be affected by Zelenskyy’s anti-corruption drive is former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov. Reznikov has played a prominent role in persuading Western allies to contribute to the Ukrainian war effort. However, with multiple corruption allegations and arrests within his ministry, public calls for him to take accountability were growing. While previous Ukrainian administrations may have left senior figures implicated in corruption in their positions, Zelenskyy has good reason to act against such a public figure. Reznikov’s removal sends a clear signal to domestic and international audiences that, no matter their political power and influence, no politician is above the law. Domestically, this will likely increase the legitimacy of Zelenskyy’s administration. Furthermore, Western concerns over the misappropriation of funds will ease, thus smoothing the way for additional funding.
Possible Shift in Public Support
Although European governments remain largely committed to supporting Ukraine, the lack of significant territorial gains might see public support for further economic and military aid gradually decline, particularly as energy prices continue to rise. As the conflict enters its 19th month, elections in multiple countries are approaching. Slovakia’s Sept. 30 elections could see a new NATO-skeptic, pro-Russian coalition come to power within the EU. Moreover, Hungary remains largely resistant to directly challenging Moscow. The build-up to the 2024 US presidential election could also see Washington’s support for Ukraine’s grinding offensive waver as political opinions shift amid the campaign period. Furthermore, although President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has pledged the EU’s long-term support to Ukraine, such assurances might be increasingly resisted by political groups in the EU having Euroskeptic or pro-Russian leanings.
Ongoing Conflict
Ukraine faces multiple critical points in its ongoing fight. Although Moscow is internationally isolated and suffering internal purges at the highest echelons of government, Russian forces continue to defend seized territory. Politically, Ukraine is subject to internal pressure from a population increasingly fatigued by the ongoing conflict, and by the possible repercussions of perceived corruption and nepotism. While Zelenskyy will continue to take steps to counter corruption, he will likely be careful to protect the cohesion of his administration’s war effort. Internationally, the West is on the verge of a turbulent political season, which could result in disruptions and resistance to the continued funding of the Ukrainian conflict. If public opinion shifts, which is most possible in Central and Eastern Europe, European governments might be forced to reconsider their support for Ukraine. Ukraine’s management of the conflict and expectations in the upcoming months will play a significant role in determining future support for its war effort, and likely have an outsized impact on political debates in nations across the region.
