Despite North Korea conducting missile tests in recent days, tensions between Pyongyang and the US are unlikely to increase in the coming months. North Korea recently held cruise and ballistic missile tests March 21 and 25, respectively; North Korean leader Kim Jong-un held the tests to denounce the US-South Korea joint military exercises that took place from March 8. Communication between Kim and the US has been scarce; North Korea has rebuffed the White House’s attempts at establishing contact since President Joe Biden took office in January.
North Korea Responds to Perceived Aggressive Activities by US
In the coming months, North Korea will likely continue to hold sporadic weapons tests. These actions – a show of strength in response to perceived external aggression – aim to strengthen Pyongyang’s aid-negotiating abilities. North Korea has previously offered to reduce missile tests in return for US concessions, such as reducing sanctions, ceasing joint military drills with South Korea, selling weapons to South Korea, and increased economic aid.
North Korea may hold larger-scale tests in the coming months if negotiations do not favor Pyongyang or if North Korea perceives aggression from the US. However, the March 21 and 25 tests were relatively minor; officials conducted them with smaller cruise and ballistic missiles. Kim Jong-un has held larger weapons tests in the past; in 2017, he fired a reported nuclear-capable missile following the inauguration of current South Korean President Moon Jae-in. North Korea is unlikely to hold more provocative tests involving longer-range, more powerful missiles until the US strategy in the region is clear. It is likely that additional perceived aggressive activities, such as US-South Korea military drills, will result in North Korea firing more missiles.
US Administration Addresses Denuclearization
President Biden’s administration has not officially announced a denuclearization strategy for North Korea. Senior US officials have not commented on the nature of a potential US policy, only mentioning that it would be different from policies utilized by previous presidents. However, the Biden administration will likely attempt to establish contact with Pyongyang, after which both sides may start negotiations. It is unclear how successful those attempts will be, as Pyongyang has ignored US attempts to communicate since February.
Should talks between the two countries start, Biden will likely adopt the traditional US approach of incentivizing North Korea to halt weapons tests and shut down missile sites in exchange for Washington reducing sanctions. Despite the high likelihood of Kim authorizing additional weapons launches, Biden is unlikely to react strongly to any weapons tests.
Tensions between North Korea and US Unlikely to Escalate
Despite the recent weapons tests and degree of ambiguity regarding US policy towards North Korea, tensions between the two countries are unlikely to escalate in the coming months. Barring an unforeseen incident that significantly increases tensions, the US will likely attempt talks encouraging Pyongyang to gradually downsize its nuclear weapons program. In turn, North Korea will almost certainly hold weapons tests when it feels threatened or for negotiating power. Nonetheless, as in past years, these tests do not represent any immediate threat toward the US or South Korea.
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