The recent coup in Niger will likely test regional cooperation in the Sahel in the coming month with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) having issued an ultimatum on July 30 to restore the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum to office within one week or face a possible military intervention. The forceful overthrow of Bazoum by the presidential guard's elite forces on July 26 demonstrates ECOWAS’ inability to safeguard democratic governance in the region. Any external military intervention may further destabilize the greater region as the governments in Mali and Burkina Faso denounced the ultimatum and threatened to leave the bloc. Militant groups in the Sahel will likely take advantage of the political instability and decreased cooperation, increasing security threats in the Sahel.
Impact of Military Intervention
Following the coup, the chairman of ECOWAS, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, sent Beninese President Patrice Talon and Chadian President Mahamat Deby to engage in mediation efforts. However, Tinubu will likely face a significant test in upholding the body’s mandate. Recent coups in Burkina Faso and Mali have resulted in closer ties between the two countries, along with their suspension from ECOWAS. Nevertheless, the punitive measures from the bloc have done little to restore democratic governance. In a joint communication, authorities in Bamako and Ouagadougou warned that any military intervention in Niger would amount to a declaration of war against Mali and Burkina Faso and result in their full withdrawal from ECOWAS. A military intervention in Niger may fracture the regional organization and solidify a sub-regional alliance between the West African juntas, including those in Niger and Guinea.
Military intervention in Sahelian politics has become the norm rather than the exception. The fragile state of the Sahel could be due to continuous and seemingly persistent cycles of military actions while endemic governmental corruption continues to stall socio-political and economic development within the region. In Niger, coup leader and head of the Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie (National Council for the Protection of the Homeland, or CNSP) General Abdourahmane Tchiani cited the increasing insecurity facing the country as the factor behind the military takeover in Niamey —a statement that has not met with universal agreement. President of Burkina Faso Ibrahim Traoré used similar justification for his coup in that country in September of 2022. However, such overthrows are more likely a symptom of decay between the military establishment and political institutions rather than a greater malaise of overarching corruption and territorial insecurity. Still, military transitional leaders are unlikely to have any greater success in improving the national security than their civilian predecessors. They face attacks by well-financed jihadist militant groups while themselves struggling with limited military resources amid a general atmosphere of political instability and ineffective governance.
Conclusion
While the transitional government in Niamey has vehemently opposed any external military intervention, the risk of inaction by the regional bloc will likely perpetuate the cycle of ineffectiveness following a military coup. However, the risk of intervention may increase regional insecurity, damage the organization's credibility, and create a new rival faction. Government instability will also likely contribute to a worsening security situation as national military and other security forces grapple with counterterrorism efforts; militant jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State have previously exploited this vulnerability, raising concerns for neighboring nations. Fractures and decreased cooperation between regional partners provide additional security gaps for militant groups to utilize.
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