Authored by Courtney Kansler and Lise Barnard
What We Know
Scientists are racing to investigate the novel SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, first reported by South African researchers in late November, which the WHO has deemed a new “variant of concern” due to preliminary findings of extensive mutations within the virus’ genome. Though it will take weeks to determine the extent of Omicron’s mutations and how they affect disease transmission, severity, and the effectiveness of current vaccines against the variant, initial reports indicate a few key judgments: Omicron variant disease severity has thus far been mild among vaccinated individuals; that the Omicron variant contains several mutated genes that may contribute to higher transmissibility, even more than what was observed with the Delta variant; and that current vaccines may be less effective against Omicron due to these mutations.
Concerns
If researchers confirm the Omicron variant is more easily transmitted between people, the ease and rapid spread would likely usher in another wave of COVID-19 activity. Reduced vaccine effectiveness in combination with waning immunity among both vaccinated individuals and previously infected individuals could increase the pool of susceptible individuals. Despite a likely increase in transmissibility, available data suggest that the severity of the Omicron variant is mild. The emergence of this strain in South Africa led to a significant increase in cases, displacing the delta variant as the major circulating strain in Gauteng, but this was not observed in conjunction with increases in hospitalizations or COVID-19-related deaths.
Data collected over the past two weeks in Gauteng suggests that the Omicron variant has an R0 of 1.94 compared to the R0 of 1.47 for the Delta variant. If this increase in transmissibility proves true, the Omicron variant may ultimately lead to increases in hospitalizations and deaths, affecting more individuals, even if the percentage of hospitalizations and death rate decrease in relation to the suggested mild severity of the strain. It should be noted that the cases observed in South Africa were seen mainly among younger individuals, and the true severity of the variant still needs to be determined.
Further, as unvaccinated people represent a reservoir for viral mutations, this underscores the importance of equal access and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines globally, thereby slowing the pace of widespread viral mutation that could otherwise outpace the ability to test and treat emerging variants and modify existing vaccines to better respond to specific strains.
Within a week of the identification of the Omicron strain by South African scientists, international travel restrictions were reinstated against at least seven Southern African countries. This decision was met with skepticism from international health organizations such as the WHO, since while this might delay the speed of Omicron’s global spread, it’s likely that this variant has been circulating in several countries unchecked, with at least 20 countries reporting cases as of Dec. 1.
What This Means for the Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus/This Pandemic
We’re not returning to normal before 2023. As low vaccination coverage persists globally, the pool of susceptible individuals remains, keeping COVID-19 in circulation. Unless global vaccination increases, the emergence of additional variants is likely. This could fuel future COVID-19 waves, prolonging a return to normality. As more variants emerge, higher mutations are likely and higher transmissibility and severity may emerge in future variants. Science is evolving alongside the pandemic as we expand our tools in the fight against the disease. However, vaccination together with basic health precautions remain our best mechanisms to return to pre-pandemic life.
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