Volunteer groups from around the world are assisting the Turkish government’s rescue efforts in a race against time and severe weather conditions.
Authored by: Chris Clough and Eunet Louw
In the early hours of Feb. 6, a magnitude-7.8 earthquake struck near the Turkish-Syrian border, 37 km (23 miles) west-northwest of Gaziantep. There were multiple aftershocks reported in the following hours, including a magnitude-6.7 tremor just a short distance from the original epicenter. At midday on Feb. 6, a magnitude-7.5 earthquake was reported near Ekinozu in Kahramanmaras Province. Hundreds of aftershocks have been reported in the days since the twin earthquakes, several of which have been significant, including a magnitude 6.0-earthquake 5 km (3 miles) northeast of Goksun in Kahramanmaras Province and a magnitude-5.5 temblor 9 km (6 miles) east-southeast of Golbasi in Ankara Province. On Feb. 7, several more significant aftershocks were recorded including two magnitude-5.5 tremors in the province of Adiyaman and one magnitude-5.4 earthquake in Matalya Province. On Feb. 8, the death toll in Turkey was estimated at 8,500 with more than 40,000 people reportedly injured. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared a three-month state of emergency for 10 provinces in the southeast of the country due to the far reaching impact of the twin earthquakes and multiple aftershocks gripping large parts of the country.
The earthquakes and aftershocks continue to have a major impact on all travel sectors, including ground, air, and maritime transportation; severe disruptions or total suspensions of operations are ongoing. A major fire in the strategically important port of Iskenderun in Hatay Province on the afternoon of Feb. 6 resulted in a complete halt in operations, with all scheduled shipments being diverted to other ports. The extent of the damage caused by the blaze is yet to be determined; however, severe structural damage has been reported. Hatay Airport (HTY) is closed due to severe structural damage, while Gaziantep International Airport (GZT), Kahramanmaras Airport (KCM), and Sanliurfa GAP Airport (GNY) are only open to flights carrying humanitarian aid. Ground travel has been significantly impacted by the twin earthquakes, with damage to roadways and bridges reported in their aftermath. Additionally, a major winter storm in the west and northwest of the country Feb. 4-8 has exacerbated travel disruptions and hampered foreign relief efforts, particularly via road and air. Weather-related landslides and road closures will likely continue to slow relief operations in the immediate term.
Multiple foreign governments have offered to assist Turkey with humanitarian relief; however, the concern is not the scale of help offered, but ensuring that rescue and relief operations can reach the areas where it is most needed. Some of those directly affected by the earthquakes have taken to social media to both plea for help and to criticize perceived delays in the government’s response. Four residents of Hatay Province - one of the regions hardest hit by the natural disaster - have been arrested for reportedly publishing ‘provocative posts aimed at instilling fear and terror’ after they posted about the lack of search and rescue operations in their area. On Feb. 8, a group of survivors in Adiyaman marched to the governorship’s office to protest the lack of involvement from the officials remaining in the office. Police escorted the officials to a safe location; however, the possibility of reoccurring protests cannot be ruled out. The possibility of civil unrest is exacerbated by reports of no heat or electricity at the temporary housing facilities that have been erected in affected areas. There has been an influx of migration to unaffected areas, such as Istanbul, and as a result, Turkish Airlines announced fixed prices and some free flights to repatriate citizens and transport volunteers eager to help in the relief effort.
Beyond the immediate rescue operations and eventual reconstruction, a natural disaster of this magnitude will almost certainly have broader security implications. Neighboring Syria, which has also been severely impacted by the temblors, has been mired in civil war for over a decade; the situation has been exacerbated by competing priorities of external players, such as the US, Turkey, Iran, and Russia. The Islamic State (IS) remains a potent force and will almost certainly attempt to exploit the situation in terms of setting the conditions for attacks. Meanwhile in Turkey, the increasingly autocratic president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is preparing for national elections in three months: the country faces an economic crisis, a significant domestic terrorism threat, and is playing an important regional role in the Ukraine conflict. Turkey is already the world’s leading host of refugees, with over 3.5 million displaced persons, and Syria is the world’s leading contributor of refugees; many of the displaced were in the border region where the first earthquake struck and have therefore been severely impacted by this disaster.
As the Syrian and Turkish governments will be largely preoccupied with response and recovery operations over the coming weeks, militant groups will almost certainly attempt to take advantage of the situation. Equally, some domestic political issues may be set aside as parties come together to address common humanitarian needs. As international groups, foreign countries, and NGOs offer their support, other complications will arise. The Assad government in Damascus is sanctioned by the US and other countries, and this is already impacting the flow of aid. In the longer term, the number of refugees may become a particular issue: unable to return to Syria or to remain in the earthquake-impacted provinces, increasing numbers may seek to migrate towards Europe. NGOs dedicated to supporting refugees may even face resentment from indigenous peoples, if they perceive that refugees are being prioritized.
The long-term effects of this earthquake will exacerbate a region already suffering from civil war, domestic terrorism, a faltering economy, and the humanitarian challenges of a huge concentration of refugees. Outbreaks of disease and increased migrant flows are possible medium-term consequences. Conversely, it is entirely possible that the magnitude of the disaster will increase regional and international cooperation as Syrian and Turkish governments respond to the challenges they will likely struggle to face alone.
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