Further violence, heightened security, and lingering transportation disruptions are likely to persist in Sudan through at least late-April amid ongoing clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) despite the fragile 24-hour ceasefire announced April 18. The clashes erupted April 15 after RSF forces were deployed in Khartoum and Marawi April 13. Airstrikes, explosions, and heavy machine gunfire have been reported in several areas, including the Nile bridges, Khartoum International Airport (KRT), the Presidential Palace, and the Army Command in Khartoum. Both the RSF and SAF have blamed the other for initiating the violence. KRT suspended operations and several airlines are also avoiding travel over Sudanese airspace. The civilian death toll from fighting across the country has reportedly surpassed 296, with an additional 3,000 civilians wounded. Despite the ceasefire agreement, fighting between the SAF and RSF may resume, affecting business operations, including freight services, across the country in the near term.
Origin of the Clashes
The recent fighting between the SAF and RSF is a continuation of a years-long power struggle between Sudan's de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and leader of the RSF, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti. The pair have quarreled over several issues, notably over plans to integrate the RSF into the SAF, which would effectively result in Hemedti losing control over the militia. Tensions further worsened after the military and civilian opposition groups signed a deal to end the impasse between security and political elites in December. Under the signed framework, the formation of a transitional civilian government was scheduled in early April; however, several issues hindered the deal's implementation, including the abovementioned disagreement between al-Burhan and Hemedti over the integration of the RSF into the military.
The RSF mainly evolved out of the Janjaweed militias in Darfur, which had been organized by former President Omar Bashir to put down an uprising in 2003. The RSF is separate from the Sudanese regular military and has been competing for power and resources for years. In 2013, Bashir reshaped the group into a paramilitary organization by giving its leaders military ranks.
Near-term Outlook for Sudan Operating Environment
Further fighting may occur between the SAF and RSF, given the parties’ failure to secure a long-term ceasefire. Damage or destruction of infrastructure are probable in Khartoum and other cities and may lead to prolonged utility and communications disruptions. Hospitals and other emergency medical providers, including ambulance services, may be rendered inoperable. Residential and commercial areas could experience collateral impact if clashes continue in the city and major towns. Authorities may implement restrictions on communications, enforce curfews, and ban public gatherings. Spontaneous or planned demonstrations in response to the victory of each party are possible in Khartoum and other cities.
Protracted clashes between the SAF and RSF will increasingly have adverse business ramifications. Investors and freight industry leaders may seek to reroute shipments through alternative ports in Egypt if persistent supply chain issues and security do not improve, which will adversely impact the country's economy. The threat to the shipping sector is unlikely to decrease over the medium term. The costs of mitigation measures, including escalating insurance costs, will continue to burden the industry.
Threat Mitigation Summary
Contact your local embassy and inform them of your current location and situation.
- Shelter in place until the situation becomes clearer.
- Be prepared to do so for at least 72 hours or potentially longer.
- Maintain a high level of vigilance/situational awareness, remain discreet and keep a low profile.
Conserve basic supplies, including food, water and medicine.
- Take stock of all resources and develop a rationing plan.
- General recommendation is a minimum of 500mL of water and 1,000 – 1,200 calories of food, per person per day.
Stay inside (unless in extreme danger e.g. fire or the building is structurally unsound).
- Ensure building/your rooms are locked down.
- Minimise light that may be seen from outside.
- Shut windows and close curtains/blinds, if the windows do not have blinds, hang a blanket over them.
- Stay away from windows, especially ones facing the streets.
- Have a designated safe room to retreat to. This room should be the most secure inner sanctum of the building & have the least number of windows and entry points. Keep 24-hours’ worth of supplies, blankets, and a mattress in the room.
- In the event of fighting nearby, retreat to your designated safe room, cover the windows with blankets or a mattress, keep a low profile and spread out throughout the room. Do not group together in one corner.
If you do have to go outside, blend into the local populace as best you can.
- Avoid wearing clothing/expensive or attractive items that could draw unwanted attention.
- Avoid using any communications/electronics openly and do not take pictures.
- Avoid security forces and buildings.
- If you are confronted, comply with any orders given. Avoid being combative or defiant towards anyone who appears to have authority.
Check in regularly with a trusted point of contact.
- Always keep people informed of your whereabouts and any plans (where, when, how) you have to move, relocate or evacuate.
- Maintain regular communications as best you can (through a range of communication/media applications).
- Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones.
- Ensure communication devices are always fully charged.
Keep abreast of the current situation as best you can through multiple sources.
- Try to formulate plans for continued safety, communications and potential movement.
- Be prepared to activate your plan and move at a moment’s notice.
Ensure essential items are always close to hand & pack a Grab-bag.
- Have a prepared and close to hand survival/Grab-bag. You should be prepared to move with only one carry-on bag (in the event of evacuation).
- Essential items to include can be, but not limited to non-perishable food, water, change of clothing, basic washing and sanitary kit, first aid kit & medicines (with prescription if needed), travel documents/copies, cash, ATM cards, communications/electronics chargers, first aid supplies, flashlight, spare batteries, daily use tools, etc.
- Keep a written record of telephone numbers of next of kin, bank, embassy, flight company, medical insurance, phone network, email login codes, work and consider downloading relevant apps such as those of the air travel company, medical resources, or your country’s foreign office.
- Any emergency medical data or prescription drugs for an on-going medical condition should be kept on the person.
- Keep any identification cards/passports, credit card, cash (mixed denominations) and mobile phone on your person always.
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