Tensions in the Middle East related to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war will almost certainly continue and could intensify over the coming weeks. Beyond the Palestinian territories of the Gaza Strip and West Bank, there has been an uptick in violent incidents in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon since the conflict began. Moreover, Yemen’s Al-Houthis, who remain aligned with Iran, have also launched regular drone and missile attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), which comprises Iraqi and Syrian Shi’a militia groups, continues to conduct almost daily attacks against US military camps and bases in Iraq and Syria.
Escalations in Iraq
On Jan. 20, Shi’a militias in Iraq launched over a dozen rockets and missiles against the Ayn Al-Assad Airbase (AAAB) in Al-Anbar Governorate. While Shi’a militias have claimed over 150 attacks against US’ camps and bases in Iraq and Syria since Oct. 17, the Jan. 20 barrage represented the largest attack to date. The base's air defense system reportedly failed to intercept all of the projectiles. As a result, some projectiles made impact, concussing some soldiers. The US military retaliated in the early hours of Jan. 24 and targeted the Kata’ib Hizballah (KH) group in at least three locations in Iraq—Jurf al-Sakhar near Baghdad in Babil Governorate, Al Qaim in Al Anbar Governorate, and Trebil on the Iraqi-Jordan border.
The US airstrikes on Jan. 24 killed at least one militia fighter and wounded three others. KH stands defiant; the group issued a statement later on Jan. 24 saying that the continued “American intransigence” in attacking the Popular Mobilization Forces’ headquarters and its security forces calls for changing “the equation of deterrence.” KH has specifically stated that it will expand the “circle of resistance” by increasing the frequency and scale of its attacks against US bases until America and its coalition partners are driven out of Iraq and the region.
Ongoing Violence to Israel’s North
In a similar vein, the Lebanese Hizballah (LH) militant group continues to clash with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on the shared border between the two countries. On Jan. 8, an IDF airstrike killed Wissam al-Tawil, who served as the Commander of the elite Redwan Force within Hizballah, in his hometown of Khirbet Silem. Israeli strikes within Lebanon have definitely had an impact as they have forced Hizballah to distance itself from the two countries’ shared border. While the danger of escalation remains, neither the IDF nor Hizballah seems inclined to further intensify tensions now. However, the danger of miscalculation remains. A Hizballah projectile that kills multiple IDF soldiers or civilians will almost certainly bring about a swift response, which could subsequently prompt more intense clashes between the two sides.
The Israeli government will also continue to target Iranian military advisors in Syria. On Dec. 25, the Israeli government killed Brig. Gen. Razi Mousavi -- a senior military commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) -- in the Sayeda Zeinab suburb of Damascus. On Jan. 20, the IDF killed at least five Iranian military personnel near Damascus, including the Quds Force’s chief of intelligence in Syria. Tehran’s response to Mousavi’s death manifested on Jan. 15 when the IRGC launched multiple missiles targeting several locations in Erbil, including what it alleged was a Mossad espionage center.
Iran’s Regional Influence
So long as Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip continues, Tehran and its cohort of proxies will almost certainly continue to stage attacks against Israel and its allies in the Middle East. Still, Iran’s immediate objective is not to escalate tensions to the point that it will prompt a serious military strike by the US or Israel but rather to sustain a serious campaign of harassment and disruption. Tehran’s end goal, however, is to prompt the US and its allies to exit the region, particularly from Iraq and Syria.
Tehran has established control over four Arab capitals—Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sana’a. However, nowhere has it ensconced itself more than in Baghdad. The Shi’a militias practically run the Iraqi government and are beginning to consolidate their gains across the political and economic realm. The main groups that make up the PMF, Iraq’s state-sponsored umbrella group of militias, are the KH (Party of God Brigades), the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH, Righteous Group), and the Badr Organization. AAH and the Badr Organization, headed by Qais al-Khazali and Hadi al-Amiri respectively, along with former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, are the forces behind the current Iraqi government formation.
KH, Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS, Master of Martyrs Brigades), and Harakat Hizballah al-Najuba (Party of Gods’ Nobles) have largely been behind the rocket and drone attacks in Syria and Iraq. The US retaliated against three KH-associated locations in Iraq on Dec. 26 following a drone attack against Erbil Airbase, which wounded three US military personnel. The Iraqi government has condemned KH’s drone attack as well as the US retaliatory strikes stating that such measures violate the nation’s sovereignty. Prime Minister Mohammad Shi’a al-Sudani’s government is in an extremely delicate position as it attempts strike a balance between Iranian-aligned Shi’a militia groups (IAMGs) and the US.
Beyond running the Iraqi government, Shi’a militias have begun to extend their tentacles into the Iraqi economy. In November 2022, al-Sudani approved the establishment of the Muhandis General Company for Construction, Engineering, Mechanical, Agricultural, and Industrial Contracting. This company is named after former KH leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, whom the United States killed along with Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 outside Baghdad International Airport.
US Reactions
Tehran remains unprepared both militarily and economically to escalate tensions to the point that will invite direct US and Israeli attacks. However, its proxies will continue to launch attacks in their areas of control to achieve some effects. The IRI has achieved this by getting Washington and its allies to draw down their non-essential personnel. Attacks by Al-Houthis have prompted most shipping companies to suspend use of the Red Sea route.
While the US has launched Operation Prosperity Guardian to provide some protection to commercial vessels in the Red Sea, the attacks will almost certainly persist. Operation Prosperity Guardian is a defensive coalition of over 20 countries operating in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden. The Al-Houthis have been somewhat successful in targeting commercial vessels largely due to the intelligence they receive from Tehran. Reports indicate that the IRGC is providing real-time intelligence and weaponry to the Al-Houthis to attack vessels transiting the Red Sea. In fact, the US government is offering USD 15 million for information about Abdolreza Shahlaei – the IRGC general who runs Iran’s operations in Yemen.
The US and UK governments have begun to retaliate against the Al-Houthis to deter the group from further kinetic attacks. The US and UK targeted over 73 military sites, Jan. 11. Targets included radar systems and drone, ballistic missile, and cruise missile storage sites near or in Abs, Sana'a, Al-Hudaydah, Hajjah, Ta'izz, Sa'dah, and Zabid. The Al-Houthis have stated that six of its members were killed and five others injured in the Jan. 11 airstrikes. The Al-Houthis, which are officially known as Ansar Allah (Supporters of God), hail from the Houthi tribe in Yemen. While the group emerged in the 1990s, it took over Sana'a and other major cities in northwestern Yemen in September 2014. The Al-Houthis are politically and militarily aligned with Iran and its other proxies in the region.
The Al-Houthis have been launching dozens of attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea since Nov. 19 in opposition to the Israeli ground military offensive in the Gaza Strip. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has said that its airstrikes are aimed at degrading the group's capacity to attack maritime vessels. The Al-Houthi attacks have manifested in anti-ship ballistic missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and cruise missiles. CENTCOM has stated that its airstrikes are separate from the Operation Prosperity Guardian.
Conclusion
As tensions persist and escalate, the risk of miscalculation grows. The US will almost certainly up its attacks against Shi’a militias in Iraq if more of its soldiers are wounded or killed. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Washington dissuaded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in early October from launching a preemptive strike against Hizballah in Lebanon. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has described Washington’s Middle East strategy as being built upon the twin pillars of deterrence and diplomacy and designed “to improve the fundamental position of the United States to protect [its] people.” This strategy has largely worked to date, but Washington’s enemies continue to test its strategic patience as Israel’s ground offensive in pursuit of Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip continues.
