Uncertainty Grips Kabul as Taliban Declare Victory

The Taliban took control of Afghanistan Aug. 15, after entering Kabul. The victory was preceded by swift Taliban gains in recent weeks, including taking control of 26 provincial capitals since Aug. 6. Taliban fighters arrived outside of the capital late Aug. 14, before entering the city allegedly to maintain law and order after police and other security personnel reportedly abandoned their checkpoints.

Former President Ashraf Ghani fled Afghanistan, and the Taliban claims to be in complete control of government offices nationwide. The group plans to rename the country the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the nation's previous official name under Taliban leadership 1996-2001.

The Taliban controls all border crossings with its neighbors, leaving Kabul's Hamid Karzai International Airport (KBL) as the only departure point from the country. The quick fall of Kabul has caused a chaotic situation in the city as foreign governments and civilians attempt to leave the country. The Taliban's presence continues to grow, with fighters guarding key posts throughout the capital.

Traffic congestion is significant, particularly on routes to KBL, though reports suggest that the Taliban is providing crowd control. Thousands of local civilians have gathered at the airport and have attempted to access departing flights. Reports indicate that sporadic gunfire - the origin of which can be unclear - has occurred.

Violence remains possible on the civilian side of KBL and surrounding areas of the airport in the coming days as people attempt to flee the city. The US and other governments have warned civilians to shelter in place and not to travel to KBL until officials have directly confirmed departure is possible.

Most Western diplomatic missions have decamped to the US-controlled military side of KBL, where the US has deployed some 6,000 troops to protect and evacuate its personnel. Several governments are evacuating staff, their nationals, and some Afghan civilians who helped during the war effort. The Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority closed the civilian side of KBL Aug. 16, though flight data indicates that some commercial aircraft - possibly charter or government-arranged flights - have occurred.

Most departing flights are on military planes from the US-controlled area of KBL. Taliban leaders claim the group will not interfere with the evacuation of personnel. Evacuation operations could continue for several days. Intermittent flight disruptions are possible, as civilians have previously attempted to board departing planes and overrun runways. Many airlines have announced plans to avoid Afghan airspace until further notice.

Short Term Outlook

The Taliban will attempt to neutralize any pockets of resistance and consolidate its grip on the country in the short term. One of the group's first priorities will be to seek international recognition for its regime. However, the US, its close allies, and many other countries have said that they will not recognize any regime imposed by the force of arms. Limited recognition from regional countries is likely; Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE recognized the previous Taliban government.

Early indications suggest that China might also offer international recognition. Recent battles in cities have caused infrastructural damage and led to the movement of internally displaced people, some seeking to become refugees in neighboring countries. Repairing infrastructure and preventing a humanitarian disaster present early challenges to the new regime.

The nature of a Taliban-dominated government is unclear. The negotiated surrender of some district and provincial capitals, combined with a deal made to Herat powerbroker Ismail Khan, indicates that the group is prepared to compromise and accommodate others in a regime.

While the participation of non-Taliban members in a future government is possible, they will likely fill less important roles. Such an approach would strengthen the group's claim to be "inclusive" and be used as a further means of gaining international recognition.

Once the Taliban has consolidated power, the group will possibly target Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) in Afghanistan to demonstrate that it will not allow safe havens and thus strengthen its efforts to gain recognition. However, its strong links with al-Qaeda will remain, opening the possibility that the Taliban will allow the group to operate in the country.

Afghanistan's neighbors, for geographical reasons alone, will have to have some form of relationship with a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, despite previously supporting a negotiated peace. Although there have been border closures, some have reopened following the Taliban takeover, and it is reasonable to assume that borders will soon operate normally under a Taliban regime.

Contributing experts include GardaWorld's Risk Analysis Team, Afghanistan.