Social unrest is one of the most common types of security incidents that can disrupt business operations and put personnel at risk. Generally, social unrest occurs when a group gathers publicly to express dissatisfaction or anger centered around a common cause and is usually accompanied by a demand for societal change. This can take the form of protests, rallies, demonstrations, and riots. Unrest is most likely to occur when tensions surrounding a social issue or grievance are escalated in reaction to a trigger or flashpoint. These triggers provide a sense of urgency to demonstrators, a “now or never” imperative that motivates them to act.
Trigger Events and Social Unrest
While a trigger can be any event that provokes strong feelings, certain kinds of events over the past few years have consistently brought unrest worldwide and will continue to do so in the future. Unpopular laws have sparked social unrest in many countries, as they make demonstrators feel persecuted over loss of freedoms. For example, anti-government protests in Hong Kong in 2019 over a proposed extradition law brought the city to a halt for months. A proposed metro fare increase in Chile led to widespread unrest in late 2019 and early 2020, and resulted in a widely-approved referendum to create a new constitution. And more recently, public health restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic brought on several waves of protests in the US and Europe in 2020 and 2021.
Similarly, declining socioeconomic conditions, usually as a result of government actions and inactions, are a popular flashpoint for unrest. In Sri Lanka, protests over severe inflation, daily blackouts, shortages of essential items, and corruption prompted the appointment of a new prime minister in May 2022. Poor socioeconomic conditions, as well as political deadlock, have caused significant unrest in Lebanon over the past several years. Additionally, demonstrators frequently demand accountability from the government over the 2020 Port of Beirut explosion.
Unrest also usually happens in the lead-up to and following elections. As political beliefs are highly personal and have strong emotional associations, people are invested in the outcome of these contests. Unrest is particularly likely if the results of the election are perceived to be falsified. Large-scale anti-government protests occurred for months in Belarus after President Aleksander Lukashenko was declared the winner of the presidential election in August 2020, despite poor approval ratings and widespread support of opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. And in the US, unrest following the November 2020 loss of former President Donald Trump ultimately resulted in a riot at the Capitol building Jan. 6, 2021.
Lastly, social causes that fight for rights, recognition, and equality can cause disruptions following a trigger. For example, police officer-involved deaths of people of color, particularly Black men, tend to spark waves of demonstrations of varying intensity in the US. Some of the most impactful demonstrations around the issue came following the death of George Floyd in May 2020. More recently, demonstrators have rallied following the US Supreme Court’s June 24 ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, which established the right to abortion nationwide. While these demonstrations have been largely peaceful and caused only minor disruptions, the threat of violence cannot be ruled out at any further protests while tensions remain high.
Impacts of Social Unrest
Given that protesters often seek to cause disruptions to normal life in order to bring attention to their issue, businesses and their personnel are almost certain to be impacted by social unrest at some point. Businesses and organizations are sometimes the target of the protests; although in many cases, the risk posed by social unrest to businesses and personnel is incidental—simply being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Popular forms of protest often cause widespread transportation disruptions due to roadblocks and excessive crowds. These delays can impact commuting personnel or deliveries and also increase response times for emergency personnel. Property damage to the targeted organizations, or other businesses that happen to be nearby, cannot be ruled out, as looting, arson, and vandalism frequently occur when a demonstration turns violent. Additionally, clashes between rival protest groups or between demonstrators and security personnel often result in injury, arrest, or possibly death; any personnel traveling in the area could easily be caught in the crossfire.
Risk Mitigation Strategies
Intelligence is one of the most important pieces to safeguarding a business’ operations and personnel during unrest. Unrest can often be predicted; analysts take into account previous causes of unrest, observe trends in social discourse, and monitor any announcements of upcoming demonstrations. The intelligence is then provided to stakeholders ahead of the unrest, allowing for mitigation measures to be put into place that protect their people and assets. However, unrest can also start unpredictably or can grow at an unexpected level. Analysts are able to quickly assess a situation as it unfolds and provide timely information to allow a business to respond. And as the unrest develops, the insights and predictions contained in the intelligence allow for stakeholders to change course as needed, assess and shore-up vulnerabilities, and ensure the continued safety of personnel.
The risk to a business from unrest is generally evaluated by looking at certain tripwires on a sliding scale. This includes:
- Demonstration attendance
- The presence of violence
- The prevalence of business and transportation disruptions
- The security and government response level
A small, peaceful demonstration that causes localized transportation delays would be categorized as low-risk, as it is likely to have only a minimal impact on a business' operations. On the other hand, a large demonstration that causes widespread business disruptions, as well as increased security personnel, curfews, and roadblocks, would be categorized as high-risk, as the threat to operations and personnel is much greater. While these tripwires cannot encapsulate every aspect of social unrest, they provide a guide for businesses to implement risk management protocols that appropriately respond to potential threats.
Download our guide containing expert advice for reducing your vulnerability during civil unrest.
Crisis24 provides in-depth intelligence, planning, and training, as well as swift and actionable responses to keep your organization ahead of emerging risks. Contact us to learn more.
