DRC: Continued insecurity in DRC as result of political instability and violence

Event

DRC continues to face heightened insecurity, as the political process to see the handover of power from President Joseph Kabila continues to stall and fighting between various rebel groups and government forces persists in the central Kasai and north-eastern Kivu provinces. On Friday, May 12, the electoral commission announced that ongoing violence in Kasai provinces would likely result in further delays to the presidential election, which under the terms of the December 2016 peace agreement should be held before the end of the year. The threat of civil unrest and violent crackdowns by security forces remains high, while clashes between armed rebel and criminal groups and government forces continues to embroil both civilians and foreign nationals present in the country.

Context

DRC faces increasing political polarization as a result of President Kabila’s resolve to remain in power beyond his constitutional limit, which expired at the end of 2016. A peace agreement signed between Kabila and the “Rassemblement” grouping of opposition parties at the end of December 2016 looked as though it could bring an end to the violent protests that had been ongoing in the country since September. However, the peace agreement has faced a series of significant challenges that threaten to derail its implementation. As part of the December peace deal, Kabila was permitted to stay in power beyond his mandate, on condition of the formation of a transitional government led by an opposition prime minister. Kabila appointed Bruno Tschibala to the prime minister post on April 8, which proved to be a contentious move as Tschibala had been expelled from the Rassemblement group in March, causing further deterioration of relations between Kabila and the opposition. Kabila’s May 9 announcement of a 60-member transitional government, which sees many of Kabila’s allies retain key ministry positions, served to further strain the already tenuous working relationship between the administration and opposition. Meanwhile, Rassemblement continues to suffer from internal disagreements as it reels from the death of its long-time leader Étienne Tshisekedi, who died abroad in February. Tshisekedi’s body is expected to be returned to the country from Belgium for burial at some point in the future, though this has been delayed multiple times; when his return finally does go ahead, large crowds – which could turn violent with little notice – should be expected in Kinshasa, and access to N’Djili International Airport (FIH) is likely to be limited.

Creating further instability, presidential elections that should be held before the end of the year continue to be delayed. The government has  blamed both budgetary constraints and continued violence – particularly in the Kasai provinces –  for these delays. While these complexities will no doubt prove to be real challenges for the holding of elections, it is also apparent that Kabila is willing to drag out the political process as he attempts to cling to power. As a result, continued political protests and civil unrest should be expected, with the chance of violent crackdown by security forces.

In addition, insecurity linked to the presence of armed groups and corresponding military operations against them persists in the eastern and central areas of the country. Kasai, Kasai Central, and Kasai Oriental provinces have been wracked by violence, with ongoing clashes between the Kaminwa Nsapu militia and government forces. The security situation in eastern DRC, including North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, is also volatile as a result of numerous rebel groups and armed criminal gangs operating in the region. As the political process in Kinshasa stalls, grievances over socio-economic and political conditions could exacerbate intercommunal violence throughout the country.

Advice

The political and security situation in DRC is complex. Travelers should consider making contingency plans in the event of violent political demonstrations, which should be avoided, and keep abreast of the developing situation.  Although travel is permissible in some areas, other areas may be considered off limits. Professional security advice and support should be sought prior to travel.