DRC: Opposition calls for mobilization beginning July 22 /update 1

Event

In response to the announcement that a presidential vote would "probably not be possible" this year - as stated by the president of the DRC’s electoral commission (CENI) Corneille Nangaa on July 9 - members of the country's opposition announced that they will launch a resistance movement beginning on July 22. On Wednesday, July 11, the "Rassemblement" opposition group called on supporters to prepare to mobilize beginning July 22 to denounce the move to delay the vote, which they assert violates the tenuous peace deal agreed in December 2016 between the government of President Joseph Kabila and the opposition coalition. In light of these developments, there is an increased risk of anti-government protests and civic unrest, particularly in Kinshasa and other urban areas on or after July 22, with the possibility of violent crackdowns by security forces.

Context

Shortly after the July 9 statement from the CENI president, opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi responded by saying that the electoral commission had "declared war on the Congolese people," and promised a response by the opposition bloc.

This is not the first time that the presidential elections have been delayed. The government has repeatedly blamed both budgetary constraints and continued violence – particularly in the Kasai provinces –  for these delays. While these complexities will no doubt prove to be real challenges for the holding of elections, it is also apparent that Kabila is willing to drag out the political process as he attempts to remain in power. On July 2, the UN special representative for the DRC, Maman Sidikou, called on the electoral commission to publish an official consensus-based timetable for the elections; the commission responded that the publication of the electoral calendar is to be determined by a parliamentary vote on a new electoral law. The country’s next parliamentary session is due to start on September 15.

DRC faces increasing political polarization as a result of President Kabila’s resolve to remain in power beyond his constitutional limit, which expired at the end of 2016. A peace agreement signed between Kabila and the “Rassemblement” grouping of opposition parties at the end of December 2016 looked as though it could bring an end to the violent protests that had been ongoing in the country since September 2016. However, the peace agreement has faced a series of significant challenges that threaten to derail its implementation, including the delays to the election.

In addition, insecurity linked to the presence of armed groups and corresponding military operations against them persists in the eastern and central areas of the country. Kasai, Kasai Central, and Kasai Oriental provinces have been wracked by violence, with ongoing clashes between the Kaminwa Nsapu militia and government forces. The security situation in eastern DRC, including North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, is also volatile as a result of numerous rebel groups and armed criminal gangs operating in the region. As the political process in Kinshasa stalls, grievances over socio-economic and political conditions could exacerbate intercommunal violence throughout the country.

Advice

Individuals present in the DRC are advised to monitor local developments, to maintain a high degree of situational awareness (be alert to and report any suspicious objects or behavior), and avoid all rallies and demonstrations.

More generally, individuals in the DRC are advised to exercise caution and maintain a low profile at all times. For various security reasons, a number of Western governments advise their citizens against travel to the east and northeast of the country.