South Pacific Ocean: Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasa strengthens, continues to track near Fiji and Vanuatu midday Dec. 15 /update 3

Event

Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasa continues to strengthen as it tracks eastward between Fiji and Vanuatu in the South Pacific Ocean, Dec. 15. As of 1200 FJT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 730 km (450 miles) west-northwest of Suva, Fiji. Forecast models indicate the storm will intensify further into a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone by early Dec. 16 and turn southeastward. The system is forecast to pass over Bligh Water between Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, Fiji, and into the Koro Sea late Dec. 17 through early Dec. 18. Impacts associated with the weather system will likely be felt across Fiji, Vanuatu, the Hoorn Islands, Wallis and Futuna, and southern Tonga, including Tongatapu and 'Eua, through at least Dec. 20. While forecasts do not indicate landfall, significant uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of Dec. 15, the Fiji Meteorological Service has issued heavy rainfall, high wave, and flood warnings for the Mamanuca and Yasawa island groups, as well as eastern Viti Levu, Vanua Levu, and Taveuni. Additionally, officials in Vanuatu have issued a tropical cyclone advisory. Authorities will likely update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
Tropical Cyclone Yasa will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to Vanuatu and Fiji through at least Dec. 20. Severe weather may also affect Wallis and Futuna's Hoorn Islands Dec. 17-18 and Tonga's Tongatapu and 'Eua islands Dec. 19-20. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, and rivers, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Coastal flooding and abnormally high tides are possible along Vanuatu's eastern and Fiji's northern and western coasts. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, the system may produce damaging wind gusts. Widespread and prolonged power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are possible.

Transport
Inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through at least Dec. 20. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including Bauerfield International Airport (VLI) in Port Vila, Vanuatu; Nadi (NAN) and Nausori (SUV) international airports on Viti Levu, Fiji; and Futuna Airport (FTA) on Hoorne Islands. Disruptions caused by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Vanuatu Meteorological Services
Fiji Meteorological Service
Tonga Meteorological Services
Meteo France Wallis and Futuna (French)