South Pacific Ocean: Category 5 Severe TC Yasa continues to track near Fiji; landfall projected in western Vanua Levu late Dec. 17 /update 7

Event

Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasa maintains its strength as it tracks southeastward near Fiji in the South Pacific Ocean Dec. 17. As of 1200 FJT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 250 km (155 miles) north-northwest of Suva, Fiji. The system is likely to make landfall over Bua Province in western Vanua Levu Island, Fiji, late Dec. 17. Forecast models indicate that the storm will continue to track southeastward and gradually weaken as it turns southwestward through late Dec. 19. Impacts associated with the weather system will likely be felt across Fiji, the Hoorn Islands, Wallis and Futuna, and southern Tonga, including Tongatapu and 'Eua, through at least Dec. 22. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Government Advisories
Authorities in Fiji have ordered a nationwide curfew 1600 Dec. 17-0600 Dec. 18. As of Dec. 17, hurricane, heavy rainfall, high wave, storm surge, and flood warnings for the Mamanuca and Yasawa island groups, as well as Viti Levu and Vanua Levu remain in effect. Additionally, officials continue to issue strong winds and heavy rainfall warnings for all of Fiji. Officials in Tonga have issued gale and strong wind warnings in parts of the country through Dec. 20. Authorities will likely update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
Tropical Cyclone Yasa will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to Fiji, the islands of 'Eua and Tongatapu in southern Tonga, and Wallis and Futuna's Hoorn Islands through at least Dec. 22. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, and rivers, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Coastal flooding and abnormally high tides are possible along Fiji's northern and western coasts. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, the system may produce damaging wind gusts. Widespread and prolonged power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are possible.

Transport
Inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through at least Dec. 22. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including Nadi (NAN) and Nausori (SUV) international airports on Viti Levu, Fiji; and Futuna Airport (FTA) on Hoorne Islands. Disruptions caused by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Fiji Meteorological Service
Tonga Meteorological Services
Meteo France Wallis and Futuna (French)