Europe: Adverse weather forecast across eastern and southeastern regions through at least Jan. 28

Event

Heavy precipitation, including rain and snow, strong winds, flooding, and possible landslides/avalanches are forecast across southeastern and eastern Europe through at least Jan. 28. The affected areas include Greece, Moldova, western and northern Turkey, eastern Bulgaria, and eastern Romania. As of Jan. 26, authorities have issued orange-level warnings for thunderstorms, strong winds, and heavy snowfall for Greece, southern and central Moldova, eastern Romania, and northwestern, central, and eastern Turkey. Additionally, orange-level avalanche warnings are in effect for eastern Turkey. Yellow-level warnings are in effect for much of the rest of the affected area. Authorities will likely expand coverage of the advisories as the systems approach and weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
The system could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across southeastern and eastern Europe. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area through at least Jan. 28

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Authorities could close mountain passes and tunnels as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic in the Aegean, Ionian, Mediterranean, and Black Seas. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or debris is cleared. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair, or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements prior to travel in the affected area through at least Jan. 28. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions if routing shipments through affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in case prolonged electricity outages occur.

Resources

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