Europe: Storm systems to bring adverse weather conditions to western and central regions through Jan. 25

Event

Consecutive slow-moving, low-pressure systems will bring rounds of rain and snow to much of western and central Europe, Jan. 21-25. The affected areas include southeastern Belgium, central and southern Germany, Luxembourg, France, western Czechia, western and central Austria, Switzerland, Italy, northern Spain, northern Portugal, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, and western Greece. As of the evening of Jan. 21, rain is falling across much of western and central France, northern Spain, and northern Portugal. Forecast models indicate these bands of precipitation will spread eastward across Europe, Jan. 22, and will change over to snow in the higher elevations, including the Alps region. A secondary area of low pressure will develop in the Balearic Sea, Jan. 23 and bring heavy precipitation to the Alps region, Italy, and the Balkan region through Jan. 25, while less intense rain and snow bands will develop again in Spain, Portugal, France, and Germany.

Government Advisories
As of Jan. 21, authorities in Portugal have issued red-level warnings - the highest rating on a four-tiered scale - for damaging winds in Guarda and Castelo Branco. Meanwhile, orange-level warnings - the second-highest on a four-tiered scale - for damaging winds and high waves are in effect for the rest of northern Portugal. Orange-level warnings for strong winds are also in effect for southwestern France and central Spain. Orange-level warnings for rain, snow, and damaging winds are in effect for portions of northern Italy and Montenegro beginning Jan. 22. Yellow-level warnings are in effect for much of the rest of the affected area. Authorities will likely expand coverage of the advisories as the systems approach and weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Forecast models indicate heavy snowfall will occur in Alps region, as well as in central and southern Germany, southern Austria, Croatia, and northern Bosnia-Herzegovina. Meanwhile, rainfall totals of 5-13 cm (2-5 inches) are expected in the hardest-hit areas over the coming days including the Balkan region of Europe, Italy, southern France, and the northern coasts of Spain and Portugal. Slightly lower rainfall totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are forecast in southeastern Belgium, southern Germany, northern France, and western Czechia.

Flash and areal flooding is possible, especially in areas where the soil is saturated from previous storm systems. Such flooding could occur in low-lying communities near watercourses and other bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Where precipitation falls as snow, wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. The adverse weather conditions could cause power outages throughout the affected area through at least Jan. 25.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Authorities could close mountain passes and tunnels as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports, including those serving Paris (CDG, ORY), Barcelona (BCN), Madrid (MAD), Frankfurt (FRA), Munich (MUN), Rome (FCO, CIA), and Zurich (ZRH). Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic in the Atlantic Ocean, Bay of Biscay, and English Channel, as well as the Mediterranean, Balearic, Adriatic, Ionian, and Tyrrhenian seas. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or debris is cleared. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair, or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements prior to travel in the affected area through at least Jan. 25. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions if routing shipments through affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in case prolonged electricity outages occur.

Resources

MeteoAlarm