Southern Africa: Adverse weather warnings for heavy rainfall and flooding persist across various regions through at least Jan. 25 /update 10

Event

As of early Jan. 24, authorities maintain weather warnings for several areas of Southern Africa in response to the ongoing impacts of Tropical Cyclone Eloise (now a Zone of Disturbed Weather or Depression). The storm's center of circulation is currently located near Musina in South Africa's Limpopo Province, as of early Jan. 24. The storm is forecast to continue weakening as it moves westwards toward Botswana.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued various disruptive rain warnings for parts of the eastern North West, most of Limpopo, most of Mpumulanga, and parts of northern Kwazulu-Natal through Jan. 25. Level 10 red warnings (the highest level) are in place in communities bordering Eswatini, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. SAWS has warned of large-scale flooding in these areas. Botswana Meteorological Services has issued a warning of heavy rainfall over southern Central District which could result in localized flooding, Jan. 24-25. Meteo France has warned of heavy rains across Botswana through Jan. 27. The Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe has not issued updated guidance. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Flooding has been reported across parts of Beira, Mozambique since the storm made landfall Jan. 23. Minor damage has been reported; however, authorities continue damage assessments and further details are likely in the coming days. An unspecified number of people have reportedly been killed in flood-related incidents. Localized flooding is also being reported in South Africa's Mpumulanga and Limpopo provinces, Jan. 24.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm will continue to bring heavy rainfall to the region through at least Jan. 26 or 27. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger further flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair, or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Although a secondary concern, the threat of disease outbreaks cannot be discounted in the coming days and weeks. Backflow from drains that have mixed with floodwaters can become trapped in open areas when inundations recede. These stagnant pools often become a breeding ground for mosquitoes and bacteria, increasing the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases. Exposure to contaminated water from inundated industrial sites, sewer systems, and septic tanks also poses a significant health threat.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts before travel to central and southern Mozambique. Activate contingency plans in areas where authorities forecast severe weather conditions. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Botswana Meteorological Service
Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Mozambique)
Meteo France
Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe (Facebook)
South African Weather Service