Southern Africa: Tropical Cyclone Eloise makes landfall in eastern Mozambique, Jan. 23 /update 9

Event

Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall near Beira, Mozambique, early Jan. 23. As of 0800 CAT, the center of circulation was approximately 100 km (60 miles) southwest of Beira, Mozambique. The latest forecast guidance indicates that the storm will continue to track southwestward while weakening; impacts are forecast across portions of southern and central Mozambique, northeastern South Africa, and southern Zimbabwe through at least Jan. 24. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of 0800 CAT Jan. 23, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) maintains level 4 yellow and level 9 orange warnings through Jan. 25 for disruptive rain across central and eastern parts of the Mpumulanga and Limpopo provinces and the northeastern parts of Kwazulu-Natal Province. The Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe has warned of heavy rainfall and flooding and destructive wind and lightning, Jan. 23 in parts of the country due to Tropical Cyclone Eloise. SAWS forecasters have indicated that the impact of the storm will be felt in Eswatini. Meteo France has warned that heavy rains will impact parts of far eastern Botswana, the Maputo region of Mozambique, and Eswatini in the coming days. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of central and southern Mozambique through at least Jan. 24 and heavy rain to northeastern South Africa, Eswatini, southern Zimbabwe, and possibly far eastern Botswana through Jan. 25. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days.

Strong winds are likely. Widespread and prolonged power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are likely.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair, or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Although a secondary concern, the threat of disease outbreaks cannot be discounted in the coming days and weeks. Backflow from drains that have mixed with floodwaters can become trapped in open areas when inundations recede. These stagnant pools often become a breeding ground for mosquitoes and bacteria, increasing the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases. Exposure to contaminated water from inundated industrial sites, sewer systems, and septic tanks also poses a significant health threat.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts before travel to central and southern Mozambique. Activate contingency plans in areas where authorities forecast severe weather conditions. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas affected by the storm. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Mozambique)
Meteo France
Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe (Facebook)
South African Weather Service