Bahrain: Protests likely before and during the anniversary of GCC forces' intervention in Shi'a uprising March. 14

Event

Demonstrations and associated violence are likely to occur in the run-up to the 10th anniversary of the March 14, 2011 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) military intervention in Bahrain amid the Shi'a uprising there. Anti-government protests will most likely materialize in Shi'a towns outside central Manama, such as Abu Saiba, Al-Dair, Al-Markh, Buri, Diraz, Karbabad, Ma'ameer, Malkiya, Shakhura, and Sitra. Authorities will almost certainly increase the presence of security personnel to prevent demonstrators from marching to the former Pearl Roundabout, now known as Al-Farooq Junction, which was the symbol of the uprising and site of a major security crackdown in 2011.

Police often restrict access to demonstrations, and localized traffic disruptions are possible near rallies, particularly in Shi'a enclaves. During past protests, demonstrators have burned tires, blocked roads, and clashed with security personnel. Police often forcibly disperse protesters; officers could use tear gas, stun grenades, and possibly live ammunition to break up demonstrations. Radicalized elements of the opposition movement have previously targeted police and security checkpoints with Molotov cocktails or crude explosive devices.

Context

On March 14, 2011, Saudi Arabia-led GCC forces entered Bahrain at the request of the Bahraini government to help restore order after protesters took control of the former Pearl Roundabout in northern Manama. In an effort to remove the symbol of the nascent uprising, officials bulldozed the entirety of Pearl Roundabout. In its place, the government built a major road intersection, renaming it Al-Farooq Junction.

Violent anti-government protests have been a persistent issue since the 2011 uprising, which stemmed from the long-standing perception among members of the Shi'a majority that they were politically and economically marginalized. Critics allege the government regularly uses the specter of foreign - likely Iranian - interference to silence members of the opposition or arbitrarily detain prominent Shi'a clerics and activists.

Advice

Avoid all protests due to the potential for violence. If a protest forms near you, leave the area immediately and seek shelter in a secure location. Do not take photographs of demonstrators or security forces. Allow extra time if driving near the affected areas; consider planning alternative routes around potential demonstration sites. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.