China: Protests possible in Hong Kong through at least early April following changes to election law

Event

Pro-democracy activists could hold protests in Hong Kong in the coming days following controversial changes to the territory's election laws. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing announced the changes on March 30; the reforms will reduce the proportion of directly elected representatives to Hong Kong's Legislative Council and require political vetting of potential candidates. If rallies occur, demonstrators could gather at government buildings, shopping centers, or popular squares and parks in locations throughout Hong Kong. Dozens to a few hundred people could participate if protests materialize, though larger demonstrations cannot be entirely ruled out.

Officials will almost certainly move to break up any protests that occur due to ongoing COVID-19 gathering restrictions. Clashes between police and demonstrators are possible. However, officers will probably move quickly to arrest protesters, reducing the likelihood of running clashes and vandalism. Protests may prompt localized business and transport disruptions. Authorities may suspend Mass Transit Railway (MTR) operations if large crowds materialize or violence occurs.

Advice

Check with local sources or monitor local media as organizers are unlikely to announce protest locations in advance. Avoid all demonstrations due to the possibility of violence. Heed security personnel instructions. If clashes break out nearby, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Allow additional time to reach destinations near planned protests.