Ukraine: Late March-early April spike in ceasefire violations highlights severe risk in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions

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A recent spike in ceasefire violations between Ukrainian armed forces and separatist militants along the line of contact in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions highlights the severe risk in this area. On March 26, the Ukrainian military reported that separatist shelling and small-arms fire near the village of Shumy in the Donetsk Region killed four soldiers and injured two others. On April 6, one soldier was killed when his vehicle struck an improvised explosive device (IED) near Stepne early on April 6, while another soldier was reportedly killed during a militant attack near the town of Nevelske, both in the Donetsk Region.

The rise in ceasefire violations will likely result in an elevated security posture throughout the Donbas. The Ukrainian military may increase armed patrols and checkpoints, as well as deploy additional combat forces near the line of contact. Although ceasefire violations are fairly common, the recent spike in incidents underscores the risks presented by low-level conflict and general lawlessness in the region.

Additionally, the increase in armed clashes comes amid heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The Russian military has reportedly deployed a large number of troops and equipment along Ukraine's northern and eastern borders with Russia, as well as in Crimea, in recent days. Nonetheless, the possibility of the troop movements triggering a wider deterioration in the relationship between the two countries is low.