China: Protests possible in Hong Kong ahead of and during the anniversary of the Yuen Long attack July 21

Event

Activists could hold protests in the lead up to and during the July 21 anniversary of the Yuen Long attack. Any demonstration is likely to occur in the Yuen Long area of the territory, though small rallies in other locations cannot be ruled out. Dozens to a few hundred people may participate if any events take place, though COVID-19 gathering restrictions could dampen turnout.

Security personnel will almost certainly monitor any protests protesters and will likely move to disperse any un-approved demonstration. Clashes between police and demonstrators are possible. Protests may prompt localized business disruptions. Transport disruptions are possible, particularly if activists attempt to march in the Yuen Long area. Authorities may suspend public transport operations if large gatherings materialize.

Context

Dozens of people attacked pro-democracy protesters and bystanders at Yuen Long station July 21, 2019, following demonstrations in other areas of Hong Kong. The attack left at least 50 people injured. The incident remains controversial, with some residents questioning an alleged delayed police response to the fighting. Tensions are likely to be high surrounding the second anniversary as courts begin to rule on defendants in the incident. The court found five of the attackers guilty of rioting June 18, and verdicts of seven additional accused perpetrators are due July 22.

Advice

Avoid any gatherings due to the possibility of violence. If clashes break out nearby, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Heed all security personnel instructions.