South Africa: Shortages and sporadic bouts of unrest likely to persist in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces through July 19 /update 7

Event

Shortages of food, fuel and other commodities, as well as sporadic bouts of unrest in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provinces, are likely to persist through to July 19. As of the morning of July 16, long queues over fuel, food, and other basic commodities have been reported across KZN. This follows further, albeit limited, reports of unrest in KZN and Gauteng, July 16, with relative calm restored in both provinces. Police, military, and civic groups have begun clean-up operations, in order to restore travel along roads.

Logistics officials have cited disruptions to critical incoming and outgoing supply routes in impacted provinces, as well as concerns over the safety of personnel and vehicles as the reason for shortages. Despite the relative improvement in the security situation, authorities are increasing the current South African National Defence Force deployment to approximately 25,000; as of July 15, authorities had deployed approximately 10,000 of those troops. This contingent is almost certainly going to be deployed to areas affected by recent violence which has left at least 117 people dead. Authorities have arrested over 1,478 more people.

Further Information on the current situation is listed below:

KZN
A shopping center in Eshowe was set alight by looters in the evening hours of July 15. It is unconfirmed what the status of the situation in the town is as of July 16. The situation in Durban, Pietermaritzburg and Richards Bay currently remains relatively calm and with limited reports of unrest and looting; however, roads will likely remain impacted until they have been cleared of debris. Durban bus services are minimally operational as of July 16, only running limited services in areas considered low-risk.

Widespread fuel shortages continue in KZN as of July 16 following the shutdown of South Africa's largest oil refinery, SAPREF July 13; the facility supplies South Africa with 35 percent of its refined products. Looters also targeted fuel storage facilities in recent days. It is currently unclear how long the closure and shortages will continue. Shortages of food and other supplies are also occurring in some areas, including the province's administrative capital, Pietermaritzburg, and KZN's largest urban center, Durban. Long queues around shopping centers have been reported.

Roads in KZN, particularly around Durban, remain impacted by the recent unrest. The N3 Highway between Cedara in KZN and Harrismith in Free State Province remains closed until authorities deem it safe to reopen. Reports also indicate the N3 is closed south of Villiers, also in Free State Province.

Gauteng
Johannesburg and its surroundings remain relatively calm and clean-up operations have begun in affected areas of Gauteng. Operations continue in Vosloorus and Soweto.

Metrorail trains are operating as of morning hours July 16 along certain routes after being suspended since July 12. Trains from Pienaarspoort, Mabopane and Saulsville to Pretoria (Tshwane) are expected to run, as well as Naledi to Johannesburg and the Vereeniging to Union service. The N1 highway in Johannesburg remains open.

Heightened security will almost certainly remain in place through end of July. The police service will also continue to deploy along with SANDF personnel. Opportunistic sporadic unrest, including looting is also likely to persist in recently impacted areas and, possibly, in other urban centers in South Africa. National highways, informal settlements, city and town centers, warehousing districts are potential gathering points. The threat of clashes between protesters/looters and the security forces is high. Clashes between vigilante groups, including taxi associations and armed neighborhood watch groups, and looters or suspected looters remain a persistent threat in all recently impacted locations. The recent unrest will also exacerbate supply chain pressures. Shortages, which are likely in KZN, Gauteng and nearby provinces, will persist.

Context

Protesters have gathered regularly in KZN and Gauteng since former President Jacob Zuma's July 7 arrest and incarceration. Zuma was sentenced to 15 months imprisonment after being found guilty of contempt of court, June 29. He was arrested late July 7 and is currently incarcerated at the Estcourt Correctional Centre. An appeal to the Pietermaritzburg High Court to overturn the warrant of execution for his arrest was dismissed July 7, and on July 12, the Constitutional Court reserved judgment on Zuma’s application to have his 15-month sentence for contempt rescinded.

Although the deployment of SANDF personnel will likely temper the threat of a severe protest escalation, the food, fuel, and basic good shortages in Gauteng and especially KZN could spark further protests. The civil unrest is ostensibly linked to the ongoing incarceration of Zuma; however, most looting action appears opportunistic and criminally motivated, as well as being driven by longstanding grievances over local disputes, high levels of unemployment, service delivery demands, and corruption.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information on planned and actual protest areas. Consider alternative routes around impact areas. Plan for disruptions to both passenger and freight transport. Reconfirm the status of roads before travel. Heed the directives of the local authorities. Avoid the use of public transport services. Plan accordingly for potential fuel shortages until refinery operations resume. Verify deliveries; implement action plans to minimize supply chain disruptions. Stock up on fuel when possible.