Sudan: Further tribal protests likely in eastern Sudan through early October /update 1

Event

Further protests by supporters of local tribes involved in an ongoing dispute with the central government are likely in eastern Sudan through early October. Protesters affiliated with the Beja Congress are demanding the current government's resignation and a government representative of all regions of Sudan. Unrest is also motivated by disputes arising from the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement. Protests could occur in the Red Sea, Kassala, or Gedaref states.

Protesters have blocked multiple areas in recent days leading to disruptions to travel and goods deliveries. Authorities announced the closure of Port Sudan New International Airport (PZU), early Sept. 23. Ports in Suakin and Port Sudan and Bashayer oil terminal remain closed for a fifth day, Sept. 23. Protest organizers have threatened to escalate protests by blocking mining sites; they have also threatened to initiate protests in other states in the center and east of the country.

Officials are likely to deploy additional security personnel to all protest sites. Clashes between protesters and the security forces are likely if demonstrators are overly disruptive, ignore orders to disperse, or if they engage in acts of public violence. Protesters may seek to continue to block roads, including access to seaports and airports. Any such protests could lead to further travel and supply chain disruptions. Lengthy blockages could result in shortages of some goods, both in the east and center of the country.

Context

The implementation of the Juba Peace Agreement has been challenged by Beja communities in the east of Sudan. Several groups withdrew their support for the signing of the eastern track of the Agreement by the United People’s Front for Liberation and Justice and the opposition Beja Congress, claiming that those two factions did not represent political forces on the ground. Additionally, they accused the transitional government of failing to meet their demands including the unification of all three eastern states (Kassala, Red Sea, and Al-Qadarif) into one region, as well as for the formation of a high coordination body composed of all eastern communities that were to agree, without external interference, on a power-sharing arrangement and demands for self-determination.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts before traveling or routing goods through eastern Sudan. Reconfirm the status of seaports, flights, and airport operations at PZU before departure. Avoid all demonstrations and concentrations of security personnel. Do not attempt to drive through protester roadblocks. Seek alternative routes or wait for local officials to clear roads. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Prepare for supply chain disruptions should protests escalate or persist. Review and update contingency plans out of an abundance of caution.