30 Sep 2024 | 12:46 PM UTC
Arabian Peninsula: Continued attacks in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through late October /update 14
Further attacks against vessels in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through at least late October.
Further maritime incidents and associated disruptions are likely in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula through at least late October amid prevailing heightened tensions. Al-Houthi attacks may increase in early October following Israeli missile attacks on Yemen's Port of Al-Hudaydah on Sept. 29, which killed at least four people. The attack targeted power plants and port infrastructure and was in retaliation for Al-Houthi attacks against central Israel, including Ben-Gurion International Airport (TLV), on Sept. 28. Further Al-Houthi strikes will likely continue to target perceived Israeli or Israeli-linked ships and may also target Israeli ports through the use of long-range missiles or uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Al-Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden reduced in September from August, with no confirmed strikes reported since Sept. 2. This decrease could be related to the Al-Houthi's agreement on Aug. 27 to allow tugboats and rescue ships to reach the Greek-flagged oil tanker Sounion. Sounion had been on fire and drifting following a series of Al-Houthi UAV and uncrewed surface vessels (USV) attacks on Aug. 21-22. The tanker was carrying approximately 150,000 tonnes of crude oil at the time of the attack, posing a significant environmental and navigational hazard. Initial attempts to salvage the ship to prevent an oil spill were abandoned in early September, as the operations were deemed too dangerous due to the ongoing threat of Al-Houthi attacks, as the group had not agreed to a truce. Nonetheless, the European protective mission Operation Aspides reported Sept. 16 that Sounion had been towed to a safe area, approximately 45 nautical miles (80 km, 50 miles) off the northern coast of Eritrea. The vessel remains on fire. Further operations will be undertaken to extinguish the fire and remove the crude oil on board.
Another possible explanation for the decrease in Al-Houthi attacks in September could be that the group is stockpiling weapons in advance of a new phase of operations. Reports from late September indicate that Iran may be attempting to broker a deal for Russia to arm the Al-Houthis, including with the advanced P-800 Oniks anti-ship cruise missile. Such a missile would pose a greater threat to shipping in the region, as it would allow Al-Houthi strikes to have greater accuracy. These missiles would also threaten international warships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
US and UK airstrikes continued against Al-Houthi targets throughout August. The Al-Houthis claimed on Sept. 27 that they struck three US warships with 23 ballistic and winged missiles and a drone. Refuting these claims, US officials stated that they intercepted all missiles, and none of the ships sustained damage or were directly hit.
Al-Houthi militants initially claimed that their attacks would target Israel-linked assets in solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip; this threat has since been expanded to include US and UK-linked vessels following airstrikes by these countries against Al-Houthi targets in Yemen, as well as vessels belonging to any shipping company doing business with Israel. Shipping vessels from other states participating in maritime protection operations in the Red Sea or deemed by the Al-Houthis to have aided the US and UK strikes may also be targeted. Iran, too, is suspected of targeting Israel-linked vessels in the Arabian Sea and has seized several tankers near its coast.
Operation Prosperity Guardian, a US-led expanded maritime protection force in and around the Red Sea, has been set up to provide additional security for shipping in the region. The EU also launched its own protective mission, Operation Aspides, in mid-February. US, UK, French, Italian, and German naval forces have destroyed several UAVs, missiles, speedboats, and USVs, as well as at least one unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV).
Major shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO, maintain a policy of reduced or suspended transits through the Red Sea, as have oil and gas producers BP, Shell, and QatarEnergy. Several smaller cargo and energy shipping companies are also limiting or suspending transits. Additional companies may also halt operations in the Red Sea in the near term.
Attacks are typically preceded by an entity claiming to be the Yemeni Navy hailing the vessel on Channel 16 VHF in an attempt to divert the vessel toward Yemen. Individuals may also attempt to board the vessel from skiffs or fast boats, and exchanges of fire with ships' armed security teams have been reported.
Exercise caution and reconfirm routes with maritime authorities if transiting or shipping freight near the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or northern Arabian Sea. Companies should regularly review their ship security assessment and plan under the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS), particularly in piracy-prone areas. Companies are advised to maintain strict anti-piracy watches and report all pirate activity - including both actual and attempted attacks, as well as suspicious sightings - to local naval authorities.
The incidents in the Red Sea coincide with increased tensions in the region connected to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Iranian-backed groups throughout the region have pledged solidarity with Palestinians and carried out attacks against Israeli or US-linked targets since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli response.
Yemen's Iran-backed Al-Houthi rebels have stated that they regard Israeli shipping as a legitimate target and that they would continue attacks until Israel's operations in Gaza come to an end. The Al-Houthis possess an extensive arsenal of anti-shipping weaponry, including naval mines, waterborne improvised explosive devices (WBIED), drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles. The group has previously attempted to seize vessels near Al-Hudaydah and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reports of suspicious approaches involving skiffs are relatively commonplace. US, Saudi, and Emirati naval vessels, as well as several civilian ships, have also been targeted during the nearly decade-long Yemeni Civil War. The Al-Houthis also possess ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and weaponized drones, some of which have the range to strike targets in Israel, and the group has claimed several attempted strikes on Israeli territory since Oct. 7.
Iran has struck Israel-linked shipping in the Arabian Sea multiple times in recent years. Typically, incidents involve the use of weaponized drones at long distances from shore and occur during periods of heightened tensions between the two countries, such as after alleged Israeli attacks on Iranian interests in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or at sea.
