Sudan: Disruptions in Port Sudan likely through early November amid ongoing protests /update 3

Event

Further protests by supporters of local tribes involved in an ongoing dispute with the central government are likely in Port Sudan, Red Sea State, through early November. Protesters affiliated with the Beja Congress are demanding the government's resignation and its replacement with a more representative body. Unrest is also motivated by disputes arising from the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement. Protests could occur elsewhere in the Red Sea state and in other nearby eastern states, including Kassala and Gedaref.

Since mid-September, protesters have blocked key roads connecting eastern Sudan with the rest of the county, as well as ports of Suakin and Port Sudan. They have also blocked oil pipelines and the entrances to Port Sudan New International Airport (PZU) and Kassala Airport (KSL) at times. The Sudanese government recently warned that the country was running out of essential medicines, fuel, and wheat due to the protests. Further shortages of essential foods and medicines are likely if protests persist. The impact on the supply chain may spark demonstrations nationwide.

Officials are likely to deploy additional security personnel to all protest sites. Clashes between protesters and the security forces are likely if demonstrators are overly disruptive, ignore orders to disperse, or if they engage in acts of public violence. Protesters may seek to continue to block roads, including access to seaports and airports. Any such protests could lead to further travel and supply chain disruptions. Lengthy blockages could result in shortages of some goods, both in the east and center of the country.

Context

The implementation of the Juba Peace Agreement has been challenged by Beja communities in the east of Sudan. Several groups withdrew their support for the signing of the eastern track of the Agreement by the United People’s Front for Liberation and Justice and the opposition Beja Congress, claiming that those two factions did not represent political forces on the ground. Additionally, they accused the transitional government of failing to meet their demands including the unification of all three eastern states (Kassala, Red Sea, and Al-Qadarif) into one region, as well as for the formation of a high coordination body composed of all eastern communities that were to agree, without external interference, on a power-sharing arrangement and demands for self-determination.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts before traveling or routing goods through eastern Sudan. Avoid all demonstrations and concentrations of security personnel. Do not attempt to drive through protester roadblocks. Seek alternative routes or wait for local officials to clear roads. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Prepare for supply chain disruptions should protests escalate or persist. Review and update contingency plans out of an abundance of caution.