Sri Lanka: Adverse weather likely nationwide through Nov. 13

Event

Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are forecast to continue nationwide through at least Nov. 13, with western areas likely most severely impacted.

Government Advisories
As of Nov. 9, officials at the Department of Meteorology have issued red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) heavy rain warnings for Sabaragamuwa, Western, North Western, and Northern provinces and in Galle, Kandy, Matara, and Nuwara-Eliya districts. Orange heavy rain warnings are in place across the rest of the country. Forecast models indicate that rain is likely across western Sri Lanka through at least Nov. 13. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming hours and days.

Hazardous Conditions
Heavy rain, especially in the Central Highlands, has left at least six people dead, two others missing, and at least 891 people evacuated; additional rain will likely exacerbate the current situation. Rainfall of more than 15 cm (6 inches) is likely across Sabaragamuwa, Western, and North Western provinces, as well as in Kandy and Nuwara-Eliya districts through the remainder of Nov. 9.

Further sustained heavy rainfall could trigger additional flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger intermittent flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation. Sri Lanka Railways has restricted operations between Rambukkana and Kadugannawa and from Bangadeniya to Puttlam due to damaged tracks. Services between Kandy and Wattegama are also disrupted due to landslides. Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Department of Meteorology