Sudan: Anti-coup protests likely to persist across Sudan through early December; protest planned in Khartoum Nov. 20 /update 7

Event

Protests against the Oct. 25 military coup d'etat and related insecurity are likely to persist nationwide through early December. Regular anti-government demonstrations, particularly in Khartoum and other major cities, are likely. Protesters are likely to gather near city centers, major government buildings, and along road routes. Counterprotests by supporters of the military are also probable.

Anti-coup activists, including the Sudanese Professionals Association, have called for protests in Khartoum Nov. 20. Participants are likely to gather in the Alkadroo area of Khartoum at 12:00 and start marching from 13:00.

Security forces will almost certainly heighten security along key thoroughfares and government buildings during protest periods. Bridges in the Khartoum area will likely be closed to prevent protesters from gathering. Officials will also likely disrupt telecommunications to prevent protesters from organizing. Protesters are likely to continue to block roads and clash with the security forces. Any significant unrest is likely to disrupt state and business operations. Public transport will also likely be disrupted on protest days. Access to Khartoum International Airport (KRT) could be restricted at times.

Context

Under the direction of Army Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudanese forces staged a coup Oct. 25, deposing Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok. Lt. Gen. al-Burhan subsequently declared a nationwide state of emergency and dissolved the Sovereignty Council of Sudan, which served as the country's transitional government. Subsequent clashes between security forces and anti-coup protesters have left multiple people dead and wounded. Thousands of people gathered in Khartoum, Omdurman, and other major cities Nov. 17 to protest the military-led coup in Sudan. At least 15 people were killed and dozens of others wounded in clashes with security forces.

Al-Burhan has indicated that the military will form a nonpartisan administration that will remain in power until elections are held to elect a civilian government in July 2023. On Nov. 11, al-Burhan was sworn in as head of the transitional council he appointed following the military takeover. The 14-member Sovereign Council includes civilians representing Sudan's regions but none from the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) political coalition that had been sharing power with the military since 2019.

Associated protests will almost certainly persist over the near term. These could be planned or spontaneous. The threat of violence remains elevated at all events. Should clashes result in significant casualties, or if protest action is sustained for several days, a further deterioration in the security environment is almost certain. Sustained unrest could impact the supply of basic commodities. Shortages remain possible.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to Sudan until the current situation stabilizes. Individuals in-country should limit movement on days with scheduled protests and avoid large public gatherings, night movement, and security personnel concentrations. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Refuel vehicles when safe to do so. Purchase/obtain essential goods when available. Reconfirm all scheduled transport services, including flights, before departure. Carry identification to facilitate passage through checkpoints. Regularly review and update contingency plans with trusted contacts.