Sudan: Protests, insecurity likely to persist in Khartoum and nationwide through early December following the coup /update 5

Event

Thousands of people gathered in Khartoum, Omdurman, and other major cities Nov. 17 to protest the military-led coup in Sudan. At least 10 people were killed and dozens of others wounded in clashes with security forces during the demonstrations, according to the Central Committee of Sudanese Doctors.

Authorities continue to disrupt internet and telecommunication services to prevent protesters from organizing. Khartoum International Airport (KRT) reportedly remains operational, although some airlines, including Emirates (EK), have suspended flights to and from KRT over the coming days.

Insecurity is likely to persist nationwide through at least early December. Regular anti-government demonstrations, particularly in Khartoum and other major cities, are probable. Protesters are likely to gather near city centers, major government buildings, and along road routes. Counter-protests by supporters of the military are also probable.

Clashes at all associated demonstrations are almost certain. Due to civil unrest or operations by the authorities, related disruptions to intra- and intercity road travel, airports, border crossings, and business operations are also likely. Shortages of basic goods and commodities will almost certainly worsen in the coming days.

Context

Under the direction of Army Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudanese forces staged a coup Oct. 25, deposing Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok. Lt. Gen. al-Burhan subsequently declared a nationwide state of emergency and dissolved the Sovereignty Council of Sudan, which served as the country's transitional government. Subsequent clashes between security forces and anti-coup protesters have left multiple people dead and wounded.

Al-Burhan has indicated that the military will form a nonpartisan administration that will remain in power until elections are held to elect a civilian government in July 2023. On Nov. 11, al-Burhan was sworn in as head of the transitional council he appointed following the military takeover. The 14-member Sovereign Council includes civilians representing Sudan's regions but none from the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) political coalition that had been sharing power with the military since 2019.

Associated protests will almost certainly persist over the near term. These could be planned or spontaneous. The threat of violence remains elevated at all events. Should clashes result in significant casualties, or if protest action is sustained for several days, a further deterioration in the security environment is almost certain. Sustained unrest could impact the supply of basic commodities. Shortages remain possible.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to Sudan until the current situation stabilizes. Individuals in-country should limit movement on days with scheduled protests and avoid large public gatherings, night movement, and security personnel concentrations. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Refuel vehicles when safe to do so. Purchase/obtain essential goods when available. Reconfirm all scheduled transport services, including flights, before departure. Carry identification to facilitate passage through checkpoints. Regularly review and update contingency plans with trusted contacts.