Bahrain: Protests in Shi'a areas likely on National Day and Martyrs' Day, Dec. 16-17

Event

Bahrain will celebrate National Day Dec. 16-17. Additionally, Shi'a opposition groups will commemorate Martyrs' Day, which honors the death of two Shi'a men that security forces killed Dec. 17 during the 1994 uprising. Anti-government protests by Shi'a opposition movements are highly likely on both days. If serious violence occurs demonstrations could persist through Dec. 18.

Clashes between protesters and security forces are possible at any protests that occur. Most unrest will likely occur in Shi'a areas outside of Manama, such as Al-Aker, Bani Jamra, Abu Saiba, Al-Dair, Al-Markh, Buri, Diraz, Sanabis, Jidhafs, Karbabad, Karranah, Ma'ameer, Malkiya, and Sitra.

Localized traffic disruptions are likely near protest locations as police often restrict access to demonstrations. Clashes between protesters and security forces are possible. In past protests, demonstrators have burned tires, blocked roads, and clashed with security personnel. Police often use tear gas, stun grenades, and at times live ammunition, to disperse demonstrations. In certain instances, radicalized elements of the opposition movement have targeted police and security checkpoints with Molotov cocktails or crude explosive devices.

Government offices and most businesses will close as the state has declared both days a public holiday; business and commercial disruptions are therefore likely.

Context

Since 2011, clashes between primarily Shi'a anti-government protesters and security forces have been a common occurrence. Authorities in Bahrain have become intolerant of any form of dissent or criticism of the government. Security forces have arrested and prosecuted numerous activists for participating in protests, using social media to disparage the government, and documenting incidents of torture and abuse by police. Critics have accused the government of silencing opposition groups and suppressing freedom of expression. The government crackdown has, in turn, led to more protests and violence.

Advice

Consider delaying nonessential travel in likely protest areas Dec. 16-17. Avoid all protests due to the potential for violence. If a protest forms nearby, leave the area immediately, and seek shelter in a secure location. Do not take photographs. Allow extra time if driving near the affected areas; consider planning alternative routes around potential demonstration sites.