Bahrain: Protests likely before and during the anniversary of the Shi'a uprising, Feb. 14

Event

Protests and associated violence are likely to occur in the run-up to the eleventh anniversary of the beginning of the Shi'a uprising Feb. 14. Anti-government protests frequently occur throughout the country; additional protests will likely materialize around the anniversary, particularly in the predominantly Shi'a towns outside of Manama, such as Abu Saiba, Al-Dair, Al-Markh, Buri, Diraz, Karbabad, Ma'ameer, Malkiya, Shakhura, and Sitra.

Authorities will almost certainly increase the presence of security personnel around key sites, such as the former Pearl Roundabout, now known as Al-Farooq Junction, which was the symbol of the uprising and site of a major security crackdown in 2011. Police often restrict access to demonstrations, and localized traffic disruptions are possible near rallies, particularly in Shi'a enclaves. Acts of violence are likely. Demonstrators could burn tires, block roads, and clash with security personnel. Police will likely forcibly disperse any protests that materialize, particularly those in Manama and near the Al-Farooq Junction; officers could use tear gas, stun grenades, and possibly live ammunition to break up demonstrations. Radicalized elements of the opposition movement could target police and security checkpoints with Molotov cocktails or crude explosive devices.

Context

Opposition Shi'a groups have staged regular anti-government demonstrations since early 2011. The frequency and size of the demonstrations have tended to increase during anniversary periods. Opposition groups are demanding wide-ranging political reforms. Clashes are common during protests, with police moving to disperse demonstrations. Associated acts of violence have also occurred. Numerous small-scale bomb attacks have targeted members of the security forces, killing more than 25 officers. The government claims the bombings are the work of individuals with ties to the Lebanese Shi'a group Hizballah, which is a proxy of Iran. However, opposition supporters have rejected this allegation and accused the government of using the bombings and the threat of Iranian interference as a pretext to crackdown on the opposition and all forms of dissent.

Bahraini authorities have become extremely intolerant of any form of dissent or criticism of the government. Security forces have arrested and prosecuted numerous activists for participating in protests, using social media to disparage the government, and documenting incidents of torture and abuse by the police. Authorities have also blacklisted opposition groups and targeted influential Shi'a religious figures by revoking their citizenship or detaining them. Critics accuse the government of silencing opposition groups and suppressing freedom of expression. The government crackdown has, in turn, led to more protests and violence.

Advice

Avoid all protests due to the potential for violence. If a protest forms near you, leave the area immediately and seek shelter in a secure location. Do not take photographs of demonstrators or the security forces. Allow extra time if driving near the affected areas; consider planning alternative routes around potential demonstration sites. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.