Central Europe: Storms forecast to bring adverse weather across Central Europe through at least Feb. 21 /update 2

Event

Successive storms are forecast to bring adverse weather across much of Central Europe through at least Feb. 21. The first storm system has passed over the UK and is moving over central Europe through Feb. 17 and into early Feb. 18. A second storm is forecast to impact the UK Feb. 18, and although the exact trajectory of the storm is uncertain at this stage, it will likely impact parts of southern Denmark, northern Germany, and northern Poland late Feb. 18-20. The primary hazard from the storms is likely to be strong winds, especially in mountainous and coastal regions. The storms will also bring isolated thunderstorm activity and heavy precipitation, including snow over higher ground.

Disruptions have already been reported in Germany and Poland due to the first storm. As of early Feb. 17, 324,000 people across Poland are without power. Strong winds have caused power outages and fallen trees have blocked railway lines and roads in Lodz province in central Poland. Around 50 homes were damaged in Greater Poland province and dozens of train services have been canceled across the country. One fatality occurred in Miedzyrzecz in western Poland when a tree fell on a vehicle.

In Germany, national rail operator Deutsche Bahn (DB) canceled several long-distance rail services, mostly in northern states. DB has stated that further disruptions are expected through Feb. 19. Berlin's fire brigade declared a state of emergency early Feb. 17 due to a surge in demand for their services. Flooding has been reported in Schleswig-Holstein due to storm surge. Authorities in North Rhine-Westphalia State closed schools Feb. 17 due to the adverse weather.

As of Feb. 17, the respective meteorological services for the affected countries have issued the following weather warnings:

Austria's Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG):

Orange wind warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): across northern and eastern Austria.
Yellow wind warnings: across central and northeastern Austria.

The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI):

Red heavy rainfall warning (the highest level on a four-tier scale): Trutnov District in Hradec Kralove Region.
Orange wind warnings: across the whole Czech Republic.
Yellow heavy rainfall warnings: across parts of northern, northwestern, western, and southwestern Czech republic.

Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI):

Orange wind warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): across southern, western, and southeastern Denmark late Feb. 18-early Feb. 19.
Yellow wind warnings: across central and eastern Denmark late Feb. 18-early Feb. 19.
Yellow storm surge warning: on the southwest coast Feb. 17.

The German Weather Service (DWD):

Purple wind warning (the highest level on a four-tier scale): in the Ore Mountains in far southern Saxony State.
Red wind warnings: across northern Germany and parts of southwestern, southern, and southeastern Germany.
Red thunderstorm warnings: across much of Thuringia and parts of southwestern Saxony states.
Orange thunderstorm warnings: parts of northwestern Hesse, central and southeastern North Rhine-Westphalia, and far northern Rhineland-Palatinate states.
Orange thaw warnings: parts of southwestern and far southeastern Baden-Wurttemberg and southern and eastern Bavaria states.

An advance information warning has also been issued for strong winds across northern and central Germany Feb. 18-19 due to the forecasted impact of the second storm system.

The Hungarian Meteorological Service:

Orange wind warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): across northwestern and north-central Hungary.
Yellow wind warnings: across most of the rest of Hungary.
Yellow thunderstorm warnings: northeastern Hungary.

The Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB):

Red strong wind warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale): western Poland.
Orange strong wind warnings: central Poland.
Yellow strong wind warnings: eastern Poland.

Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMU):

Red strong winds at altitude warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale): across parts of northern Slovakia,
Orange wind warnings: across western and parts of northern Slovakia.
Orange strong winds at altitude warnings: parts of northern Slovakia.
Yellow wind warnings: across central and northeastern Slovakia.
Yellow strong winds at altitude warnings: across northern, central, and northeastern Slovakia.
Yellow snowdrift warnings: across northern Slovakia.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout affected areas.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather could cause some delays and cancellations at airports across Central Europe. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the North Sea and Baltic coasts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding/snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.