Russia, Ukraine: Russian troops likely to move into separatist-held areas of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts following Feb. 21 sovereignty recognition

Event

Russian forces will likely move into separatist-held areas of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in Ukraine in the coming hours after the Kremlin's Feb. 21 official recognition of the two regions as independent states. The presidential decree recognizing the sovereignty of the self-declared Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic included orders that the Russian Ministry of Defense deploy forces to the two breakaway provinces in eastern Ukraine, ostensibly at the request of separatist leaders to carry out "peacekeeping operations." While it remains unclear precisely what the timetable or size of the deployment may be, unconfirmed reporting suggests that Russian troop convoys may have already crossed into Luhansk and Donetsk. As of early Feb. 22 there is no indication that Moscow will order its forces to push beyond the territory of the two breakaway regions.

Context

Ethnic Russian separatists in Ukraine's Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts have been fighting government forces, with Moscow's backing, in a bid to gain independence since 2014. In recent years, however, the conflict had largely settled into a stalemate along the line of contact between the two opposing forces, with occasional skirmishes taking place. No nation had previously recognized the sovereignty of either of the breakaway regions and, despite Russia's doing so on Feb. 21, the international community still views them as integral parts of Ukraine.

Several Western governments have denounced the move by Russia, with some pledging to impose sanctions. Regardless, it is as yet unclear what the international response or its effectiveness will be. Moscow's action will, however, undoubtedly escalate tensions with Ukraine and the NATO countries. Although Russian troops have reportedly been clandestinely operating in the restive portions of the Donbas region for a number of years, any open deployment of full Russian military units along the line of contact will likely increase the potential for direct clashes with Ukrainian forces. Such clashes could ultimately be used by the Kremlin as justification for seizing parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts that still remain under government control.

Advice

Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Ensure that contingency plans are reviewed and regularly updated. Maintain flexible itineraries, monitor local media for updates on the situation, and be prepared to change travel plans at short notice in response to developments.

Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and non-confrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions. Be discreet when discussing the situation, including on social media.