Europe: EU tightens sanctions on Russia and Belarus March 9 /update 19

Event

The EU confirmed a tightening of sanctions on Russia and Belarus March 9. The move extends sanctions to an additional 160 Russian individuals, extends the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) suspension to three Belarusian banks, introduces new limits on the export of maritime navigation technology to Russia, and confirms that crypto-assets are covered under existing financial sanctions. The UK also announced a tightening of sanctions March 9, enabling the seizure of Russian aircraft and banning the export of aviation technology to Russia, including related services, such as insurance services.

Authorities in the US banned the import of Russian oil, gas, and coal products March 8. Officials in the UK have stated they would phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022, and EU officials have asserted they will aim to reduce imports of Russian gas by two-thirds by 2023. The measures will likely result in increased fuel prices in those regions.

Several governments have imposed a plethora of international sanctions on Russia in response to the Kremlin's decision to invade Ukraine Feb. 24. The sanctions target the country's banking and finance sector, international travel capabilities, and specific Russian companies and citizens. Sanctions and countersanctions could limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus, and of Russian and Belarusian nationals to operate in Europe.

Still, foreign nationals seeking to leave Russia or Belarus, or Russians and Belarusians seeking to leave European nations, are unlikely to face administrative obstacles. However, flight availability has been significantly reduced. Foreign diplomatic missions in Russia or Belarus could be forced to limit consular services if sanctions prompt expulsions or withdrawals of embassy and consulate staff. While there may be an elevated threat of arbitrary politically motivated detentions until tensions ease, the likelihood of such actions remains low.

Airspace Closures
The EU has prohibited all Russian-owned, -registered, or -controlled aircraft, including private and charter flights, from landing in, taking off from, or transiting any EU nation. Switzerland, the UK, Canada, the US, and several additional countries have imposed similar bans. Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) announced reciprocal restrictions on Russian airspace for airlines operated by those countries Feb. 28. Flights from these countries can only be conducted with a special permit issued by Rosaviatsiya or the Russian Foreign Ministry. Airspace closures will lead to significant disruptions to air travel, including scheduling changes and lengthier flight times, as carriers are forced to change routes.

Aside from national airspace closures, several Western airlines have either partially or fully suspended services using Russian airspace. Air France (AF) has suspended services to and overflights via Russia until further notice. Consequently, flights to and from China, South Korea, and Japan will be temporarily suspended. Lufthansa (LH), Wizz Air (W6), and KLM (KL) have also halted flights to Russia temporarily; British Airways (BA) has stopped its service to Moscow. US carrier Delta (DL) has suspended its code-share arrangement with Russian flag carrier Aeroflot (SU). Swiss Airlines (LX) has suspended services to Russia through at least the end of March. Korean Air (KE) has announced a suspension of its passenger flights to Russia and the rerouting of its cargo flights to avoid stopping in Moscow for fuel through March 18. Asiana Airlines (OZ) has also indicated it will avoid fueling in Moscow.

Aeroflot and S7 Airlines (S7) suspended all international flights except those with Belarus as of March 8; the measures also apply to Aeroflot subsidiaries Rossiya Airlines (FV) and Pobeda (DP). Rosaviatsiya has released a statement discouraging Russian airlines from conducting flights abroad due to concerns that current sanctions would lead to the seizure of leased aircraft. Further Russian airlines will likely enact similar suspensions.

European Air Travel Restrictions
Belarus has partially closed its airspace, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in the Mogilev Region. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has also issued a warning for Ukraine and surrounding regions, including an advisory to avoid using the airspace within 100 nautical miles (185 km/115 miles) of the Belarus-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine borders. Moldova, on the other hand, has fully closed its airspace. To view the full EASA warning, click here.

Russian Domestic Air Restrictions
Russia has suspended commercial flight operations at several southern airports until at least March 14. Impacted airports include Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Anapa Airport (AAQ), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Elista International Airport (ESL), Stavropol Shpakovskoye Airport (STW), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Oryol Yuzhny Airport (OEL), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), Voronezh International Airport (VOZ), and Simferopol International Airport (SIP).

Embassy Warnings
Several governments have issued travel advisories that recommend against travel to Russia and recommend that citizens depart Russia.

The US State Department urged US citizens in Ukraine March 9 to leave the country immediately using available private ground transport options if safe to do so. However, the advisory also cautioned that Ukraine's roads may be crowded, exposed to combat operations, or damaged, leaving sheltering in place as the best option for some. The US Embassy in Moscow advised its citizens to consider leaving Russia Feb. 27.

The UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) advised UK nationals whose presence in Russia is not essential to consider leaving by commercial means March 5. The French Ministry for Foreign Affairs (MFA) strongly urged all French citizens in Russia to leave the country if their presence is not essential as of March 3. The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs advised all citizens to leave Russia immediately Feb. 28. The Government of Canada issued a warning March 7 advising all citizens to leave the country while commercial means are still available. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands recommends citizens consider leaving Russia. Several countries have also advised against all nonessential travel or all travel to Russia, including the UK, Ireland, and Germany, among others. Further travel advisories are likely from additional governments in the coming days.

Additionally, US authorities announced the suspension of operations at the embassy in Minsk and authorized the voluntary departure of nonemergency employees and family members working at the embassy in Moscow.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Several countries sharing borders with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security measures. Multiple NATO members in the region have invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty. They could increase the readiness of their militaries as a result, though this is not an indication that they expect to become engaged in the conflict.

Moldova, Lithuania, and Slovakia have enacted states of emergency. Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their respective borders with Ukraine open and are receiving refugees; special rail services shuttling evacuees across the border are available at some crossing points. These countries are also likely to maintain heightened troop deployments near their borders with Ukraine over at least the short term. Enhanced security measures and a sharp increase in individuals attempting to leave Ukraine will likely result in border crossing delays.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; Ukrainian citizens are, however, permitted to return.

A Ukrainian cyber guerrilla warfare group has claimed it will launch cyberattacks against Russian infrastructure involved in moving troops and weapons to Ukraine. This could include rail infrastructure, telecommunications networks, and power grids; if successful, this could result in significant disruptions to business and services in Russia and Belarus.

Sanctions
Authorities in the US, UK, and the EU have agreed to impose economic sanctions on Russia. These include excluding Russian organizations from SWIFT, forbidding citizens and companies from conducting transactions with several Russian organizations, including the Russian central bank, and freezing foreign-held assets of Russian companies and organizations.

Russian authorities have imposed countermeasures intended to limit the impact of sanctions, including prohibiting Russian citizens from exiting the country with more than USD 10,000 in foreign currency and capital controls preventing foreign companies from selling Russian assets. Additionally, the Kremlin has announced a list of 50 "unfriendly countries" in response to international sanctions. The list includes all EU countries, Switzerland, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, Singapore, and Japan; Russian companies will require approval from a special commission to conduct transactions with entities based in these countries.

The UK has banned Russian-connected ships from its seaports; other governments have not implemented similar bans as of March 9, but authorities have seized Russian-owned vessels in multiple countries.

The EU has blocked seven Russian banks from the SWIFT global financial messaging system; EU authorities extended the ban to three Belarusian banks March 9. Some international payment networks and mobile payments providers have suspended certain Russian financial institutions' access to their networks or have otherwise limited services in Russia. Notably, payments company PayPal has halted services in Russia, while electronic payments companies Visa, Mastercard, and American Express have suspended operations in Russia. The moves prohibit Mastercard, Visa, and American Express cards issued in Russia from working abroad and foreign-issued Mastercard, Visa, and American Express cards from working in Russia. Generalized public fear over the potential impact of strong economic sanctions could prompt shortages of cash at ATMs as citizens attempt to withdraw large quantities of funds, as well as shortages of essential goods due to panic buying.

Several international companies have ceased or significantly reduced operations in Russia due to sanctions or in protest over the Kremlin's decision to invade, including retail, shipping, and telecommunications companies. This will likely result in a reduction in available goods and services across Russia.

The EU suspended the broadcasting of two notable Russia-owned media organizations within the bloc from March 2. Authorities in Russia have suspended several independent Russian media organizations and restricted access to international media companies for reporting on the invasion outside of government-approved parameters. Reports suggest Russian authorities are limiting access to several popular social media sites. The Duma passed legislation March 4 making the spread of what authorities deem to be false information punishable by 15 years' imprisonment.

Anti-Western Sentiment
In the coming days, heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. A potential rise in anti-Western sentiment could also result in increased scrutiny, harassment, or coercion of foreign nationals by border guards, police, and other officials. The frequency of such incidents could increase depending on the severity of any Western economic sanctions.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions; defer travel to Ukraine. Exercise heightened vigilance at public gathering places in major urban areas. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Prepare for disruptions to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Avoid all demonstrations as a routine security precaution and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics, including on social media services.

Resources

European Union Aviation Safety Agency
Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Russian)