Ukraine: Belarus joins Russian military offensive against Ukraine March 1 /update 14

Event

Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) has confirmed that Belarusian troops have joined the Russian offensive against Ukraine March 1. Military officials state Belarusian troops have crossed the border into the northern Chernihiv Region; the exact number of troops is unclear. In Chernihiv city, officials state all exits from the city have been blockaded by Ukrainian forces; residents are instructed to remain indoors.

Heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces is ongoing as of March 1 after the first round of talks between the two nations Feb. 28 failed to halt the fighting. The heaviest fighting continues in Kharkiv, where Russian rocket and missile strikes early March 1 have caused multiple civilian casualties including in the city center. Heavy fighting is also ongoing on the outskirts of Kherson and Mariupol, where Russian troops have reportedly entered both cities. Skirmishes between Russian and Ukrainian forces are also ongoing on the northern, western, and southwestern outskirts of Kyiv. Russian forces have heavily bombarded Okhtyrka, Sumy Region, reportedly killing at least 70 Ukrainian servicemen and several civilians.

The Russian military offensive against Ukraine is continuing as of early March 1 following a first round of talks between the two countries. The heaviest clashes have been reported north, west, and southwest of Kyiv, as well as in the outskirts of Kharkiv and Chernihiv. Russian forces have heavily bombarded Kharkiv, reportedly killing at least 11 people as of Feb. 28.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated that the second round of negotiations with Russia will likely "take place in the near future" after officials concluded the first round of talks near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border Feb. 28; for their part, Russian representatives indicated that the opposing sides had found areas where they can make progress in the negotiations.

In a call with French President Emmanuel Macron Feb. 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin repeated his demands for Ukraine to disarm and remain a neutral country outside of NATO, while also requesting that Crimea be formally recognized as Russian territory.

Military Developments
Fighting continues on multiple fronts across Ukraine including on the outskirts of Kyiv, the Chernihiv and Sumy regions in the northeast, Kharkiv Region and the Donbas in the east, and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in the south. Clashes are also continuing in or near multiple southern cities, including Henichesk, Kherson, Mariupol, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces have reportedly taken over Berdyansk, located some 67 km (42 miles) southwest of Mariupol. Explosions from purported artillery and airstrikes also occurred overnight in and around Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Vasylkiv, Bila Tserkva, and Kalynivka. Missile and artillery strikes have impacted multiple areas, including several civilian buildings since the conflict began; airstrikes have also struck civilian infrastructure.

Martial Law, Curfews, Disruptions
Martial law and a nationwide general military mobilization are in effect. Curfews are in effect 22:00-06:00 in multiple regions, including Cherkasy, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr. Curfew hours are 16:00-06:00 in Kharkiv, 19:00-06:00 in Odesa, 20:00-06:00 in Dniper, 20:00-07:00 in Kyiv, 21:00-06:00 in Chernihiv, and 22:00-08:00 in Ivano-Frankivsk. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on the ground situation. Civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for persons seeking urgent medical care and workers in critical infrastructure. Public transport is unavailable during curfew hours.

Shortages of basic supplies have been reported in Kharkiv March 1 and similar shortages are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives. Russian bombardments have also caused widespread power outages in Mariupol. Other conflict-imapcted cities will likely continue to see queues at ATMs, supermarkets, and petrol stations, as well as significant traffic congestion on major westward roads.

Ukrainian authorities have closed the country's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Reports also indicate significant road travel disruptions at Ukraine's western borders as thousands of civilians flee the conflict. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open; these states will likely increase troop deployment at their respective borders with Ukraine over the short term as they prepare to receive refugees. Significant delays at border crossings into neighboring states will likely continue.

Critical Infrastructure
Metro services in Kyiv have resumed; however, trains do not operate during curfew hours and will likely cease during air raids as many stations are functioning as bomb shelters. Civilian aviation is suspended in Ukraine, and the nation's seaports are closed. Russia has temporarily stopped commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) services are operational, though reports indicate severe delays and congestion. Rail services are subject to disruptions with little warning. Reports indicate large crowds at several operational stations, including in Kyiv, where they are likely attempting to board trains. UZ is also operating evacuation trains from Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Odesa regions. Authorities have canceled train services to Slovakia.

Intermittent telecommunication and internet disruptions continued across the country as of Feb. 28. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has banned the withdrawal of foreign currency cash from accounts and has limited the permitted cash withdrawal to UAH 100,000 (3,340 USD) per day. The bank has also suspended cross-border currency payments and the replenishment of electronic wallets.

Context

Senior Ukrainian officials met their Russian counterparts for negotiations near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border Feb. 28. Ukraine is calling for an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces; however, Russia demands the unconditional surrender of Ukrainian forces.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)